France to Win Euro 2016 – Opinions / Bit of Fun

Hi All,

I’ve been a bad matched better with this one, I Got enhanced odds for France to win Euro 2016 on two diff sites, and quite fancied them so haven’t laid them off yet. Not convinced they will beat Germany though, so here I stand:

Bet 1: Got £25 on at odds of 5 on first site (lay odds 2.98 at present):
Leave it I stand to Make £100 if they win it but lose £25 if they don’t
Standard Lay – Win £16 either way
Underlay – Win £48 if they win it 0 if they don’t
Lay Partial – Win £24 if they win or £12 if they don’t

Bet 2: Got £12 (max i could put on!) on at odds of 5.25 on second site:
Leave it I stand to Make £50 if they win it but lose £12 if they don’t
Standard Lay – Win £9 either way
Underlay – Win £26.50 if they win it 0 if they don’t
Lay Partial – Win £13.08 if they win or £6.77 if they don’t

So Combined (if I don’t mix and match):
Go all In – Win £150 or Lose £37
Underlay – Win £74.50 or break even
Partial Underlay – Win £38 or £19
Standard Underlay – win £25 regardless of outcome

Tempted by partial underlay, what would you do?

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aNtis0ciaL
9

July 4, 2016 at 10:27 am

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Chris 19 July 4, 2016 at 12:51 pm

I’m in the same position mate.

£25 free bet at Betbright odds of 4.25
£40 bet at Unibet odds of 5.25.

Havent laid them off yet but I will do so after the Portugal game as I expect a slight drop in odds once one of the teams from that game has been eliminated. I dont fancy their chances against Germany so I wouldnt let it run, neither would I go for a risk free option.

I worked out that at current odds, I get £26.90 from the free bet which is more than 100% extraction and £29.53 guaranteed from the Unibet enhanced odds bet.

I’m completely happy with the return from both of those so yeah I’ll be laying off before they play again on Thursday.

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aNtis0ciaL 9 July 4, 2016 at 12:58 pm

Thanks for the input Chris (you have a very healthy UniBet account!!). I’m not convinced that the odds will drop after the Portugal game unless Wales win.

I’m tempted by the partial underlay, lose out on £6 additional guaranteed for a shot at £13 extra. I can’t see Portugal or Wales beating the winner of this game.

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James 0 July 4, 2016 at 1:01 pm

I’m facing a similar situation but also with Portugal which I got £10 @ 19.

I’m going to make France risk free as it’s too hard to call and then guarantee profit on Portugal once they (hopefully) get to the final.

I guess it depends how bad you’d feel losing £37…

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Chris 19 July 4, 2016 at 1:07 pm

Just go on your gut instinct but personally I think Wales will beat Portugal (they’ve beaten better teams) and the lay odds on France will come down to about 2.70.

The other reason I believe those lay odds will come in before Thursday is that most if not all bookies have France as favourites to win the semi-final match so smarkets showing Germany as favourites to win the tournament isn’t exactly accurate.

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Tony 12 July 4, 2016 at 1:15 pm

I have the same dilemma with both France AND Germany.

I wrote it all down, searching for the optimal strategy, which includes utilising other free bets (e.g. 5 x £5 free bets from Paddy, various Sky Club bets…) to offset one against the other, but given that either could make the final but then still lose to Wales/Portugal, its all just gambling really.

If I let them all run I would prefer a Germany win, but one of my 3 bets on them is with Wincashlive, which clearly looks like it will return f*ck all now 🙁

I also have to decide whether to lay off Ronaldo (at a marginal loss currently) and Giroud (at a decent profit currently) as Top Goalscorers. Was hoping Griezeman would get injured and miss the rest of the tourney towards the end of last night’s game, haha!

It’s all giving me a headache!!

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Chris 19 July 4, 2016 at 1:22 pm

I would lay off Ronaldo tony, might not score against Wales and thats him done for. I laid him off at 7.2 last week to cover two top goalscorer bets at £20 (9.0) and £25 (8.5) respectively but I’ve lost £40 betting on and not laying Muller.

Griezmann at back odds of 2.0 on smarkets is good value so may punt £20 on him there.

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Tony 12 July 4, 2016 at 1:34 pm

I think you are right, Chris. I had already laid off one £20 Ronaldo bet earlier in the tourney for a small loss, but am loathe to do that again as I have a nagging feeling he will do something special in Semi / Final. On a side note, he will bag me a serious wedge if he manages a goal from outside the box (officially using my ‘ONE-TIME’ here, please!!!!).

I have also lost money on Muller – unless he bags a hat-trick against France!

Will spend (more!) time tonight trying to decide on the best course of action

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Pavlon 3 July 4, 2016 at 2:17 pm

Has anyone done the B365 Penalty Payback yet?

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Tony 12 July 4, 2016 at 3:00 pm

In play odds on Outright market were fecking horrendous when I looked as one games neared penalties (Por v Cro I think). There was no opportunity there at all.

YMMV

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Blue 1 July 4, 2016 at 7:36 pm

Mmmm, i did Germany v Italy a couple of hours before kick off, for less than a fiver qualifying loss. Figured it was worth it as was always likely to go to penalties. Backed Italy 🙂 Didn’t dare back Germany too, lol, too obvious.

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Peter Portman 0 July 7, 2016 at 11:18 am

France is going to win. It has potential.

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Chris 19 July 7, 2016 at 11:21 am

Layed them off at 3. Germany always have that knack of winning even though they havent exactly been great and France do have a weak defence.

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Chris 19 July 7, 2016 at 9:36 pm

Part of me is dieing knowing I’ve taken £30 profit but had I waited until now could have taken £96

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aNtis0ciaL 9 July 7, 2016 at 9:57 pm

Isn’t hindsight a great thing eh Chris? If Germany scored in first half while they were on top it may have been a different story.

I went for the partial underlay. Tbh if I didn’t lay I’d now be leaving it as a pure bet.

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