Help Please

  • Morning all,

    Recently got into this lark with a determined attitude to get back some of the money I have lost as a mug punter over the years – all has been going well – nice and slowly and a couple of small mistakes that have cost pennies but good learning and currently a few hundred quid up which I’m well pleased with as I’d done most of the bookie signups as a mug and had no idea about matching…

    Anyway I’ve managed to get out of my depth this morning and wouldn’t mind a bit of help/guidance please if possible…

    Backed a horse for £10 MBS – 1830 at Goodwood with Paddies and thought I’d get in early and made an offer for a hopeful lay at Lads exchange – just gone back to the exchange and it is still unmatched, however there have been a couple of horses withdrawn. I’ve noticed though that the odds on my unmatched bet have dropped and am wondering what to do? Do I leave it and hope for a match at the lower price or do I go back to my original offer?

    The numbers now don’t match for a match as the lay won’t cover the back bet if it comes in – or is this why it has dropped to cover Rule 4 at the bookies… – confused.com here…

    I’d rather get out and just potentially lose the £10 (as it was their money anyway!) as opposed to messing it right up and losing more!!

    The original numbers were;

    Back Bet £10 @ 10.0

    My lay offer £12.13 @ 8.0 – underlayed so if I got it and won it would be £5 up and if it lost it would be £1.50ish up with a free £10 bet(if the fav won!)…liability £84.98

    The exchange odds on my unmatched bet have changed from 8.0 to 6.92 – liability £71.79

    ….and the lay odds have gone up massively so doubt it will get matched anyway….

    Many thanks for any advice,

    Lively.

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    LivelyArts 7

    Sooo.. had a work out – found what I think were the odds of the withdrawn horses – one was 12 and one was 14 (is there anywhere easy to check what withdrawn prices were please?)

    Worked out that only the 12 one should count and should be a 5% deduction on profits.

    So with original odds of 10 this would reduce to 9.55.

    Decided to go for a 10% deduction just in case so reduced hypothetical back odds to 9.1 and then layed against that.

    Got 8.4 – could have hung on got less but just wanted to be clear and out of this….

    So..still underlayed a little bit £10.81 @ 8.4 – liability £79.99.

    So – as it stands –

    Got £10 back on at 10.0 with potential rule 4 so 9.5 or worse case 9.1.potential £81.00

    Got £10.81 layed @ 8.4 – liability £79.99.

    Does this make sense please or am i losing the plot?

    Many thanks for any help.

    +0
    MbPunter 24

    Does your bookies bet tell you the return? Some update to factor in the rule 4.

    Otherwise yeah looks fine.

    +0
    LivelyArts 7

    Hadn’t thought of looking there – thank you!!!

    Yep a 5p reduction so my overcaution was even better – be great if it won now!!

    Thank you for the reply – really appreciated.

    All the best,

    Lively 🙂

    +0
    MbPunter 24

    No worries. Good luck!

    +0
    mtb 0

    Question – Bookmakers obviously don’t like arbitrage traders and monitor for this but how close to an arb do you think they start to get suspicious? Let’s say someone was trading at 5% near an arb but not an actual arb eg back odds 2.2 and the lay odds on the exchange were 2.1 – would they consider this suspicious? I guess I’m trying to understand what is a normal range they expect most customers to be backing at compared to the lay odds on the exchange?

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