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Horse Racing (28th Feb)

  • will hill February going out with a bang?

    ALL 7 races at Southwell AND ALL 7 races at fontwell.

    Bet365 is fontwell 3.20 and Southwell 4.40

    +0
    FoG_BLoG
    61
    February 27, 2016 at 9:06 pm

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    FoG_BLoG 61 February 28, 2016 at 11:19 am

    Going to have a big problem with the odds though.

    For example

    Impact Area is 9/2 at bookie (5.5).

    Currently trading on betfair at 7.6 presumably because that’s what he is worth.

    I reckon he has 33% chance of 2nd to SP.

    But is he worth it for qualifying cost of £4 or £5. It’s just gambling.

    The bookie price won’t go out much because of how e/w terms work (they would be paying out over the odds on the place part of the bet). Exchange odds aren’t going to change much because with one strong fav he just isn’t likely to win. I’m sure it will tighten up a bit closer to the race but the bookie is really limited on how much they can stretch their win e/w price.

    You’ll be paying quite high qualifying losses on these I reckon.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 28, 2016 at 11:21 am

    It’s just the kind of race you look for (small field, strong fav) is exactly the kind of race the bookies I think call a bad e/w race so you won’t get good odds in general on the 2nd fav.

    +0
    Chris 24 February 28, 2016 at 12:52 pm

    Not true for the 3.10. Got the second fav 6/6.4 for £1.96 qualifying loss.

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    Chris 24 February 28, 2016 at 3:17 pm

    Haha what a waste of time that was. The favourite and second favourite finished 4th and 5th in a field of 5.

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    JDUBU 8 February 28, 2016 at 3:32 pm

    dreadful wasn’t it chris i hate this 2nd to sp fav waste of time!

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 28, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    Missed it. Hopefully more luck in next one.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 28, 2016 at 4:18 pm

    6.0/7.0 at the moment. Bit of a gamble but worth it in my opinion.

    +0
    LJH 2 February 28, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    Went for Join Together for the smaller qualifying loss, and now he fell…of course

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    Chris 24 February 28, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    Made a £5 qualifying gain on the 4.20 :D

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    JDUBU 8 February 28, 2016 at 4:24 pm

    2 fallen already lets hope we get 2nd to fav!

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    JDUBU 8 February 28, 2016 at 4:24 pm

    3 fallen lol all need is fav to win now!

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    JDUBU 8 February 28, 2016 at 4:28 pm

    wow what a close race!booom on the free bet!

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    Chris 24 February 28, 2016 at 4:29 pm

    Boom. £5 qualifying win plus a £25 free bet :D

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    FoG_BLoG 61 February 28, 2016 at 4:31 pm

    Win win Chris.

    If they all fall then the bookie doesn’t pay out at all?

    +0
    JDUBU 8 February 28, 2016 at 5:31 pm

    don’t think you do fog?be nice though if you did…

    +0
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