Horse Racing (3rd March)
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Will hill – money back 2nd to Sp in Ludlow and Chelmsford.
Bet365 4/1+ for Southwell 4:00 and Chelmsford 9:10.
Coral 3/1+ free bets for winner in Meydan.
The 1:55 in Ludlow and 8:40 in Chelmsford on will hill probably best chance at free bet.
Not many at Meydan likely to deliver the free bet but would look at the 5:55 with Famous Kid.
The 4:00 in Southwell for bet365 looks like a couple of horses at 4/1 will fight it out for a free bet – exchanges not good enough yet so check nearer 4.
Does sky usually have a second chance race today? Bet 10 get 10 free on the same race. Worth checking later.
+0March 3, 2016 at 7:43 am
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But its not an ideal race with the favourite at 2/1. You need the favourite to win first and foremost to give you a chance at a free bet.
I reckon those horses you are looking at will give you a free bet 1 in 20 races on average – so you need to pay less than £1 for them.
You’ll get a good odds on a forecast for 1. 2/1 fav 2. Shoreacres (4/1)…
+0like you say, maybe worth a go at £1, forecast is around 9/1 against a 20/1 shot at a free bet
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so far so good for tatting fog…
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How do you know a forecast is 9/1. Is the forecast odds not calculated based on the SP prices, number of runners, the favourite’s SP etc. I don’t think you get the odds when you place your bet…
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Just estimate the forecast based on current odds… not that difficult?
+0Bet365 give you forecast odds
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I think there is way too much overanalysis going on here. For example, FoG you cant really say that these horses give a 1 in 20 chance of a free bet.
The offer is about picking a horse to come second to a SP favourite and keeping qualifying losses to a mimimum so if the aforementioned doesnt happen, you arent left out of pocket. Yes it helps when the favourite has short odds and the next horses are relatively short but its rather pointless to look beyond that due chance and luck factors.
I’ve been told numerous times on here its not worth doing a race only for it to come in, if I was able to tell you how many it would definitely be well, well more than 1 in 20 times.
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chris you having a go at 4pm b365 today?
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In short, if you spot an offer and the cost if it loses is low, then go for it and if you really must delve in to facts and figures to explore chances then look at the form guide of the top three horses and avoid large fields.
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Not today JDUBU but if I was, and despite the market drifting, I would go for Astra Hall.
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hm i was thinking that mate but odds drifted so gone for tatting…fingers crossed
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It is for some Mark – I don’t know how. I would have estimated 20/1. A bit of a rip off if the bookie is only going to pay out at about 9/1.
Prob fav wins = 9/4 ~ 28%
Prob shoreacres is top 2 = 6/4 ~ 36%
Prob shoreacres wins = 4/1 ~ 18%=> Prob shoreacres 2nd = 36-18=18%
=> Prob fav wins AND shoreacres 2nd = 18%*28% = 5% (not strictly allowed but okay as an estimate right?)+0
Good job JDUBU, looks like he won.
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You’re probably right Chris and you have more knowledge of the form and horses involved. If it’s pennies then I agree with you but if its over £1 I like to make sure that there is some analysis to back it up. I’m extra careful with this one as it’s not recommended at all by Matt for matched bettors – like the fallers insurance, or beaten by a nose money back, or beaten by a 20/1+ ….
But sorry. I guess ppl don’t want to read too much analysis.
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You got Tatting JDUBU? When I looked back his exchange lay was gone way up so never bothered with any of them.
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