Horse Racing – Reselling you Lay and buying back
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I don’t get how that would make you a profit? Can you give more details?
+0Kitch I bet on the race at 3.75 with Betfred by the time the last 4 horses were loaded it was at 3.35 I originally laid it at 3.85 for a liability of £70.31 so even if you calculated to the penny you would have made £1.99 profit from this race before it even started.
Most people try and secure the price within the last 10-20 minutes but the price collapses on some horses within the last few minutes.
So all I did is bet on my horse to win on smarkets to cover my original liability and relaid at the new price due to this being done very quickly I made a slight acounting error in my own favour and made £5.49 but as you can see there was proper mathmateical profit of £1.99 on that race.
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But when you cancel your lay by betting on the horse on smarkets, you are doing so at the rate which has significantly dropped, and you have to add commission. Maybe I am missing something but it seems to me that you would have won 1.99 if the horse won and lost about the same (£2) if it didn’t.
How much did you bet on your horse to cover the original liability?
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Yeah that doesn’t add up to me…its like with betfair if the odds drop and you cash out you lose money, definitely not getting what you mean im afraid..
+0Perhaps i’m just confusing myself here I have no idea now
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Basically I’m pretty certain you can’t gain anything from a fall in price when your back and lay is already set. You are effectively just backing and laying at the new price which is going to mean more loss. I would check your numbers to see how much you actually put in altogether and what you got back out- my instincts are that if you got more profit then you originally would have, you got lucky! Do let us know if you work it out
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Okay here goes this is what I did my Maths is probably flawed but heres what I did
Original Bet £25 @ 3.75 in Betfred
Original Lay £24.67 @ 3.85 (liability of £70.31)Price drops just before the off so I make a decision to lay the bet off and relay and do this as follows Bet £21.49 @ 3.31 on Smarkets (not sure if this was right now either) actually don’t think it was as I was doing this fast too fast by the looks
Then laid £28.35 @ 3.35 for a liability of £66.62 so the horse then loses so the outcome in SMarkets was then £30.89 against the lost bet of £25 at the bookies, more than likely because I didn’t bet enough against the horse in Smarkets.
+0Thats not matchbetting, thats gambling !!
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No offence, but you are literally a moron.
+0Thanks Mark, glad you cleared that up for me.
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I can only echo MarkCorrigan’s sentiment.
If you are trying to capitalise on market price changes that would make you a trader. Some people make an awful lot of money trading on betfair and there’s lots of tools you can use for this (google: bet angel or the geeks toy). I’ve used both in the past with limited success. Some people are naturals at identifying swings, analysing weight of money etc. but it’s incredibly difficult to consistantly profit.
Is this what you’re trying to get towards? The method you describe makes absolutely no sense!
+0I made profit by the race going in my favour, if the opposite result occurred I would have lost money as I didn’t calculate it right, I have said that a few times now. I misunderstood the calculation I was doing as I did it far too quickly. Mistakes happen what I tend not to do when I see someone making a mistake though is call them a moron just try and point out how they misunderstood so they don’t repeat that mistake..but then again we all have our own standard of intellect and how we deal with other people’s mistakes.
+0If you feel/think the price is gonna drop on a horse, you should back it, wait for the lay odds to drop below your back odds and then lay it for profit. For ex: back @3, lay at 2.95 = profit. Buy high sell low mate. But this is gambling for pennies so I dont do it.
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