Horse Racing (Sunday 31 Jan)
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Hills 2nd place refunds on:
14:15 Sedgefield
16:05 PunchestownBet365 4/1 races:
14:15 Sedgefield
15:15 SedgefieldPaddy 2nd to SP Fav refunds on ALL races at Sedgefield, only the 15:15 has a ‘clear’ favourite at this point.
Anymore for any more?
+0January 30, 2016 at 11:49 pm
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I have the two favs backed on the two will hill races.
Baie des ile @ 3/1
Good vibrations @ 9/4I might lay them tomorrow.
Looked at carlo rocks for paddy power but odds no good to back and lay. Don’t fancy anyone else to finish 2nd to sp so giving paddy a skip. I don’t like the 2nd to sp offer.
I don’t like the 4/1+ offer.
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I have taken Good Vibration as well. Fingers crossed because I had a terrible day with the horses today, picked nearly every winner.
Carlo Rocks does look tempting for the bet365 but I don’t have the float.
Good luck!
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Carlo Rocks is 5/2 with paddy and 4/1 with b365 And lay at 5.6 on smarkets. Still wouldn’t go near it in my opinion. It looks like £3 loss for the qualifying bet and then you have to consider at 4/1 that’s best 20% chance of free bet – so worth at best £4 to you (minus the qualifying bet cost and minus bookie edge). That’s why I don’t like this offer.
Count yourself lucky you don’t have the float.
Will b366 still pay out the free bet if his SP ends up closer to 5/2?
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Yes, it’s based on price given at time of bet.
+0does the william hill offer have to be placed on a tablet or mobile to qualify
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Hi bumblewit. Yes mobile device only.
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Yeah not great racing today, I’m doing the following:
Falcarragh to win 2.15 Sedgefield (Bet 365 offer)
Divine Port for 2nd 3.15 Sedgefield (Paddy Power 2nd to SP fav offer)
Bonny Kate for 2nd 4.05 Punchestown (William Hill 2nd place offer)+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
Anybody got their Betway £10 for 3x bets yesterday?
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I don’t see the value in the 4/1+ offer. Backing and laying falcarragh will cost about €2.91.
You will need to get the free bet every 7 races to make this a long term expected profit. Horses like 8/1 don’t win often enough.
Can someone explain the value in the 4/1+, or am I not right.
In my opinion it’s not worth playing unless you get good tight exchange odds for a 4/1 horse – a horse with a okay chance of winning.
On an 8/1 I wouldn’t be paying more than £2 on qualifying bet and even at £2 I would only expect to break even long term.
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Well FoG considering I am making £650+ per month on matched betting, I dont think a £3 or even £5 qualifying loss represents poor value. Besides its fun to do them too.
I’m just doing my own thing, each to their own.
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Also, he may be 8/1 but hes a good horse and will like the ground today so has a good chance. I’d be surprised if he goes off at 8/1.
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Think about it. You are paying £2.91, so that you get a £25 free bet so you can extract £20 cash if falcarragh wins.
If you just put the £2.91 on at 8/1 it will return £26.19 if falcarragh wins.
Better value to just straight bet on the horse. And we know straight betting is a mugs game – so stay away.
Maybe you got better than 10.0 at the exchange. Hope you did. Good luck with your bet.
+0felt1p – no, not got mine yet.
I made a couple of hundred this month from the B365 4/1 offer. If the lay odds are good then it’s worth it, imo.
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I’m not trying to shoot you down Chris. Glad you are doing well on your matched betting – that’s good profit.
Just trying to start a conversation on the value of the 4/1+ offer. I don’t like it.
Good luck with it.
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With close odds, the bet365 channel4/1 offer is very profitable. Although FoG makes a good point that a £3 qualifying loss is generally too high if it was for a standard horse race offer (i.e. MB2nd offers), you also need to factor in that the free bet is actually a risk free bet (not token) which gives you another shot at achieving a risk free bet… In other words, it’s an infinite series. If the horse was indeed 5.6 to lay then you would roughly be breaking even in the long run if it was for an MB2nd offer. However, we also have some probability of getting another free bet etc. etc. With a correct laying strategy, and using a guaranteed laying strategy, it’s not uncommon to make £5-8 per race (assuming a £50 stake).
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