How to calculate estimated value when you have a refund

  • I’m trying to work out the estimated value for accas that offer a refund. The standard way for working out estimated value is

    (Probability of Wining) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

    This works for standard bets but doesn’t work when we have a chance of getting a refund with one losing leg. Has anyone tried to work out the EV for this type of bet?

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    MarkCorrigan 16

    Please see any of the threads on acca insurance offers.

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    vibez 0

    Hi Mark, I did but they don’t take into account commission or laying

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    MarkCorrigan 16

    That’s a different matter to your initial question… What is your aim and have you attempted to derive the expected value yourself?

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    vibez 0

    Sorry I should have mentioned I’m laying the bet off. My aim to to work out how I can lock in profit regardless how many legs lose.

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