Mallorca vs. Cordoba (29 May)
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It seems both sides will be playing for a draw as the point is extremely useful for them in their league situations.
Draw is laying for 2.4 ish on the exchange, and can be backed at higher odds on bookmakers. Although, I’d speculate that the odds will continue to drop.
+0May 27, 2016 at 10:33 pm
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I’m a bit confused by this as there is still another league game to play. Doesn’t seem much sense in a draw
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I was starting to think the same beesty. But the price is there with small opportunity to make money. Got 2.6 on ladbrokes and 2.5 on betstars. Will wait and see what I can lay at in the morning.
I really think Córdoba in particular will be all out for the win as there are about 6 teams vying for promotion playoff.
2 points between 4th and 9th all going for top 6.
6th play 9th and 5th play 8th so the losers of those games might be dropping slightly out of contention. But still think Córdoba need to go for 3.
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Thanks for the tip Mark.
I managed to get 2.5 last night, but the price hasn’t moved a great deal during the night (currently at 2.46). I guess this isn’t too surprising since liquidity will only really pick up towards the start of the match.
Let’s see if my nerve holds out 🙂
Mark do you have any kind of gut feeling of how low you expect the lay odds to drop?
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I’m not convinced with the logic. As I think its a must win for Cordoba. A draw is good for the home team, but to play for a draw could be more dangerous than anything. This has to be an away win. But what do I know, away win is 4/1.
But the lay has gone down to 2.32 now… And ALOT of money wants to back it at that price so the pressure is there to maybe push it even lower?
+0Lay odds moving in the right direction.
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Cordoba won. As was always going to happen. Should have punted on them.
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Unlucky Mark!
Winning!
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So it turned out that Mark and Fog were correct. The price fluctuated considerably and did drop, but didn’t dip much below 2.28 pre-match which was frustrating.
Anyway, the price started drifting before kick off so I decided to let it run in-play and risk that the odds would drop as the game went on. Fortunately (very fortunately as it turned out), I managed to get a match at 2.1, although the odds dropped below that after 20 mins into the game. Then Cordoba scored (as Fog predicted) and as expected, the odds drifted away considerably.
I count myself lucky in this particular case, but I would still like to thank Mark for his post!
ps. A snapshot of the draw odds, just before they scored: https://imgur.com/LTGuBzw
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Anyway, for what it worth. Cordoba and girona now both essentially need a point to confirm promotion playoff spot.
They play almeria and ponferradino in last game. A point for both of those might be useful but also might not be enough to guarantee safety.
The other team fighting relegation is Mallorca who need all three points against Valladolid (who have a pretty bad league position but are playing for nothing).
So likely results based on motivation is probably Córdoba game draw, girona game draw, and Mallorca win their game.
Be slightly interesting to see how those games trade vs bookie odds. My impression is that the bookie prices don’t fully take into consideration motivational pressures – more based on historic performance.
Definitely not clear cut though.
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