Matts speculative bets look poor to me…time invested vs return

Matt does a fantastic job and keeps me interested in this bit of fun. Like many here I made hay whilst the sun shone with matched betting. I still do the easy ones and where returns are over a tenner on the accounts I have that aren’t gubbed but I now shy away from the speculative ones that are blogged, or poor returns or particularly time consuming.

I noticed from the first page of the blog today Matt made a loss on nearly all the bets and remember another day before cheltenham he did have the whole front page showing losses on every bet. I used to do the in play ones but dont bother now as you have to be pretty disciplined and I ended up watching sport all week just to make a few quid. Here is one that Matt blogged that seemed a hell of a lot of work and he made a loss on https://matchedbettingblog.com/football/betfair-sportsbook-offer-double-winnings-on-correct-score-bets/#.VwtlR_krLbg

It would be very interesting to see the hourly rate for return vs time invested in the speculative/ in play/ low return ones because I suspect it is around minimum pay because you need a blinding £150 return every now and then if you are often making a fiver or tenner loss whereas the easy, good return ones pay a very good hourly rate.

Just wondered on others thoughts?

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76zedfour
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April 11, 2016 at 9:48 am

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The Minister 5 April 11, 2016 at 12:05 pm

Yes… It’s getting tougher. The gubbings are a kick in the balls too… Could be second account time.

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FoG_BLoG 61 April 11, 2016 at 12:22 pm

I wouldn’t mind seeing an expected return on some of the bets.

For example on the money back 2nd races I think I’m making €3 to €4 per race – for the time it takes to place two bets and track the exchange for a bit to get good matches.

On the double odds betfair offer mentioned above I think I’m making €5 to €6 per match – for placing 2 bets and checking the exchange don’t really have to track it as the odds on football doesn’t change much.

On the 4/1+ offer I am probably making about €1 to €2 per race for placing two bets and spending a little more time tracking the exchange as you need particularly good tight odds for this one. With 4/1 your not getting a free bet often.

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MbPunter 24 April 11, 2016 at 12:31 pm

Well we could all spend alot less time on this and increase our hourly rate massively. But i’m sure plenty of us would be spending our weekends watching alot of sport anyway. So to be earning a fair bit extra even at a much reduced hourly rate is fine by me!

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Dave_Jones 12 April 11, 2016 at 2:02 pm

MbPunter and MarkCorrigan explained how to work out the probability of a horse finishing second in this thread here
https://matchedbettingblog.com/topic/aintree-grand-national-day-thread/page/3/#.Vwuei6T2bIU

From the probability you can work out the EV per bet. I think around £2 to £4 per bet is about right, dependant on how good you are at limiting losses on the qualifier and how good you are at extracting value from any free bets you win.

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lb1234 0 April 11, 2016 at 4:34 pm

I bet it took as much time writing this post than it would do to put 2 speculative bets on! I have made loads off speculative bets and will continue doing so. Matts blog is free. We win ££££s a year off it and is the best page on the Internet by far. No pint in complaining about something for free! We choose bets we do which

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Chris 24 April 11, 2016 at 5:03 pm

I dont care about a bunch of maths people working out probabilities etc. If you spend time researching bets, i.e form of horses, place percentages etc you have a bigger chance. I rinsed the MBS with WH and Ladbrokes before being gubbed, by far my highest earner. With correct scores, its a lot tougher but i’ve had two win out of about seven attempts.

Anyone who says MBS isnt worth it is wasting their time (and yours). Get it while you can.

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Excellent 3 April 11, 2016 at 5:23 pm

I do it because I enjoy it and don’t worry about the time spent on it. Sometimes I don’t do an offer because a) I don’t have time b) I’m gubbed c) I can’t find decent odds. And to me it’s tax free return as well (and I get hammered by the taxman).

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FoG_BLoG 61 April 11, 2016 at 5:23 pm

Strong words Chris!

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Blank 0 April 12, 2016 at 1:16 pm

This is a standing problem I have – it’s often easy to work out the EV, but when it’s low people tebd to hide it.
Whether choosing a risk free shot at £14, rather than a guaranteed £3, the EV is still the same.

E.G.
Tonight, betstars are doing moneyback if match is a draw. For a liability of £2-3 you have a shot at £25 refund.
But, by laying the draw you can guarantee a profit and realise the true EV.
The Real Madrid match is ~8.5 to draw, divide your £20 (80% fb return) by that and you get about £2.50, take away your liability and you’re looking at an EV of +50p at best, indeed it could be -EV.

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