Wolverhampton Powers shops mbs

Powers shops redcar mbs today.boyles shops redcar and mussleboro mbs to fav

Today’s MBS is Newmarket

Thank you tennis punter hope u win….

I’m BACK

Fakenham today for the PP mb2’s. Looks a very nice meet on paper with lots of small fields. Will get into a Boyles in an hour or so to see whats going on there + lads.

Hols were ok but missed the sharbing stuff- reliased after a day or two that I couldnt even do the boyles offer online- gubbed from bonuses there now- will be looking to smash them as often as possible for that! in the 4/5 shops in my range.

Overspent! so need to get back in the groove with a steady assualt today. Hope you have all been chiseling away nicely last 10 days.

Looks like i’ve brought a little sunshine back with me-Time to get out there- Good luck today!

Lets do this!

Welcome back scabbadab hope u had nice hols best of luck today forum very quiet since ur gone….

Thank you Setara m8!. Yeah I was checking in from time to time and there wasnt too much going on!.

I was worried on my way home yesterday as it was Monday (begining of week for PP) And I hadnt seen a pst from you or TP to confirm PP were doing anything- then as my coach drove past a PP a few miles from home I couldnt see the MB2 ad in their window- only some double odds football thing- So as I walked towards my flat about 10 last night near my local PP as I was dreading the worst- no mb2 ad in window (the end!!) but I steamed forward leaving my misses way behind to see the lovely ad was there!!.

Happy days! . Going out now- got 2 days worth of slips to pick up from before I left and hopefully also get as much on today as I can.

Good fishing!

Welcome back Scabbadab – as Setara says things on this site have been very quiet since you went on holiday.

I have spent a bit of time putting a spreadsheet together just to try and prove mathematically that the MBS will and does work and to try and calculate the return you can expect – see the following link.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15UKICZL5YnuUeqbbXNQvgAHebFZHJB5_/view?usp=sharing

My spreadsheet suggests that for say every 100 bets you can expect a profit of c£183.93. This is based on your back odds being 3.5 and the lay odds being no more than 5% higher.

There are a few other assumptions/guesses within the spreadsheet and if at some stage you guys can be bothered it would be good for your feedback re some of these –

– Is the 5% increase for the lay odds too low/too high? (I guess I should scale the difference as the back odds reduce/increase)
– Is it reasonable to expect that as the number of horses reduces the chance of your horse coming second increases and is my differential of 2% about right? (see the chart cells G7 to K15)
– Is the extraction rate for a free bet of 80% consistently achievable?
– Is my weighting of 0.60% (see cell B12) in favour of the horse coming second about right? (I appreciate that getting an exact is nigh on impossible but just want an estimate!)

Interestingly my modelling shows (see column D – cell D4) as you underlay less and less you can expect a better return which makes sense given the amount of commission you will save. I guess the price you pay for underlaying/no lay is more variance!

Anyway as I say if you can bothered would be great to receive any feedback on some of my assumptions – I really do need to get out on my bike and back round these shops!

TY TP nice to be back!. Tried to post earlier that Boyles were doing Thirsk & Roscammon for their mb2 to fav (thirsk had a couple of decent looking shots) but couldnt post on my phone for some reason.

Was a decent 50% gingerly 1st day back for me. The 310 was very nice with a tenners worth of underlay on Potters at 11/2 and 4 x 20 match on Hatchet jack (-20 on underlay +80 fbs) and a few scraps elsewhere. Got a decent bit e/w on Djarkevi 11/2 and Bady Ted 12s in this 530 bad e/w at Luds- see how that goes still hanging on to 8 runners!

I may well take a look at that extensive breakdown you made TP- great effort m8. But charts and anyalsis are no longer for me. I used to spend hours/days! studying historical sports odds and making charts but it sent me cukoo!
If I know something is a good thing now I just put in maximum effort into getting as much action as I possibly can with the best options available each day. In the case of these mb2s- maximum effort on the smallest fields and shortest prices. Having a rough rule of avioding the majority of fields above 10 and horses above around 4-1- maybe backing slightly higher odds as the fields get closer to the magic 5r.

Your overall estimate that profits are around 9% dosnt seem to far off to me. Without having the figures. My instinct tells me its closer to 15% if hitting mostly small fields/prices.

Ended up decent in this 530. 75 ew 11/2 Dkevi- 75 5.9 & £30 ew Baby Ted 12s – 30 -9.4. Might make a few bob!

Nowt to write home about there!

Nice 1st day back though only hit half my usual round and up +100. Still a fair way to get that holiday dosh back though!

Thanks tennis punter your maths is way above me!!!

Nice 1 scabbadab 2.10 was a big letdown today…..as regards tennispunter chart only way I can see myself making more money is up early which I haven’t been doing lately and MORE shops!!!!

Aye 210 looked the best race of the day on paper. I squeezed a bit of prof on the winner- with an e/w arb- the e/w was laying as a small arb early doors. But I didnt put much on the original fav as the early price was well off. Early prices were not great today.

But yes you should! attack these a bit more ruthlessly! I.e get up early- do a bit of of prep and plan out a route where you can hit maximum shops in good time. I try to get to my furthest shop (bus) by about 1030- hit that and another near by with as many as ican- caus im not coming – then hit 3/4 more central shops for prob the 1st 3 races of card (anything thats laying close though) Then make my way to the other far from center shops- hopefully close to 1st race time- Hit them 2 for as many decent matches as poss. Then back into center in time for 2nd half of race card to crack on again in 3/4 central shops. This way as well a lot of my bets are closer to race time (where prices tend to be closer matches+ im also not whacking down more than 4/5 slips to often at one time) To me its a leisurely 10-5 job!