Mintbet – Champions League Money back if fail to qualify

• betman mentioned this one in another thread.

  This is more a “in theory” post. Because “in practice” its going to be hard to guarantee anything from this offer. But there is a big chunk of value – around 30% return on investment – on the long shots here.

  Not really much value on the favs. They are all quoted at something like 1/12 and shorter to qualify from their group – so only 7% chance or less of a bet back. PSG odds are close at 7.5/7.6 but even 76p QL at a 25/1 shot is hardly worth wasting your time for.

  The only ones I think worth it are Spurs 41/55 which is a big £6.73 QL but they are about 55% (derived from bookie odds) to qualify from the group so about 45% chance of £25 bet back. Overall worth about £2.30, so almost 10% roi.

  And Celtic at 501/950 which is a £12.08 QL (and no way any body has the float to lay that one and tie up that much fund till May). But its definitely over 90% sure that they wont get out of the group so almost certain to get a free bet back and the £20 after extraction. This makes about just under £8 profit or about 30% roi.

  I really don’t think there is anyway to make this worth while though. All I can think is a small punt on Celtic or Spurs without laying. Just taking it as a value bet. But its just too unlikely to happen – seems pointless hoping. Maybe you can guarantee some profit if they get off to a good start or qualify. Laying is just going to tie up waaaaay too much funds because the value is only on the long shots.

  Even laying a fiver @950 though it would guarantee (along with the £20 after extraction) that you get your full stake back. Then you would be on a free bet on Celtic to win if they qualify and break even if they don’t qualify. But laying a fiver @ 950 is holding up almost 5 grand! This scenario might not be too bad on spurs.

  So I think.

  Back Spurs £25 @ 41. Lay £5.10 @ 55 (liability 275).

  They don’t qualify then you have £20 back from FB extraction and £5 back from exchange = BREAK EVEN.

  If they do qualify then lay another £5.10 at the new lay odds. So now you have a chance of a big payout £1,025 – £275 (1st lay) – something much less than 275 (2nd lay) for free. Or cash in when/if the lay ever drops to some decent return.

  Another thing to watch out for is the rules on free bet extraction, they have max odds 6/1 or something so maybe don’t count on getting full 80% extraction.

  +0

  

  FoG_BLoG

  61

  September 12, 2017 at 10:35 am