My system to increase chances of Lay winning, advice needed please

• Hello all

  I’m looking for a bit of advice on an Improvised Martingale System I’m going to try, I would really appreciate any feedback you have, or perhaps you do or know off something similar.

  So a quick bit of background, I have attempted MB twice before, the first ended by going advanced to soon and the second by my bank ending up in the Bookie with no cash to extract it further.

  I know there is no way to guarantee an Exchange win on every bet but after quite a lot of research, this is the method I have come up with to at the very least, increase my odds of the total ending up in the Exchange.

  Say on average there are 5 racing events in the UK on any given day with each event having 7 races. Now on average the favorite wins 38% of the time (I know…), but all favorites winning is quite rare and only 1 Lay win is needed to recoup any losses.

  So out of 7 races the favorite should win 2.66 times.

  I’m using the lowest bet amount so I can test this without losing too much if it goes wrong. Odds will also be a bit further apart I’m sure but should at least give you an idea.

  Race 1 Favorite Back odds of 3.8 and Lay odds of 4.1
  Race 2 Favorite Back odds of 3.4 and Lay odds of 3.65
  Race 3 Favorite Back odds of 1.66 and Lay odds of 1.7
  Race 4 Favorite Back odds of 1.87 and Lay odds of 1.96
  Race 5 Favorite Back odds of 2.74 and Lay odds of 2.92
  Race 6 Favorite Back odds of 5 and Lay odds of 5.7
  Race 7 Favorite Back odds of 1.82 and Lay odds of 1.92

  On Race 1 I back with 0.27c and lay 0.30c so that if the lay wins then I would make 0.03c profit instead of a loss (overlay?).
  If the Back loses then the original 0.27c will be transferred to the Exchange with a profit of 0.03c and I will repeat this process until the favorite wins a race. If the Back Wins then I receive 0.76c profit on the bet and lose 0.93c on the exchange with a total loss of 0.17c.

  So now I will Back 0.27c on Race 2 and Lay 1.23 (this is the 0.27c + the 0.03c profit + the 0.93c lost on previous race).
  So if the Back bet loses this time I will be up 1.23c on the Exchange which would cover my previous loss plus transfer my original 0.27c to the exchange with the 0.03c profit on the bet.

  If it loses I will adjust the lay stake to make up for the loss and continue doing so until I get a back bet loss which will then return my losses plus the back bet and the profit.
  Does this make sense to anyone?
  I know this hasn’t taken into account the commission which will be in the final bets.
  Questions I have on this is, with each wining back bet I will get the profit back on a 0.27c bet but lose more each time on the exchange, the profit on the back bet is kept small so it just offsets the total loss if the exchange loses.

  Now for example, in races 1, 2 and 3 the favorite wins, race 4 the favorite loses, I would now recoup my total losses from my 3 previous lays plus the 0.27c back bet and the 0.03c profit. However my first 3 back wins would now of made a profit because my exchange recouped its losses by the overlay.

  I feel like I am calculating something wrong somewhere, any mathematicians out there?

  Thanks to everyone on the site, its been a major source of information and an immense help.

  +0

  

  JetHero007

  0

  May 16, 2019 at 12:22 pm