Nona Blu – 14:40 Salisbury
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Fred has currently boosted this to 6.5 for a limited time. Lay odds have subsequently risen (as always) but they should fall again once the price boost expires to offer a wee (n)arb.
However, that is not why I am posting it… where this might be more worthwhile is to check if Bet365 price match the boost, as it will give you a shot at their first 4/1 Feature Race of the day for a small qualifying profit :)
+0August 11, 2016 at 12:16 pm
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Tony, looks like they haven’t matched it.
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Not yet, but maybe still happen before 1pm
Seem to recall them only matching a previous one for 2 minutes from 12:58 – 13:00 in the past!
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Massaat boosted to 2.25 by Fred in the 16:10 at Salisbury too – that might be worth getting the full whack on if you think it will go odds on before the off
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If you dont have betfred is it worth backing these on the exchange while their prices are inflated.
So Nona Blu I can back at 6.4 on smarkets, lay will go back down to 6.0 or lower = profit.
How sure are you that the lay price will go back to normal after the boost expires?
I was watching Nona Blu this morning trying to get on the B365 offer. His lay was as low as 5.4 – so if it goes back that low backing high at 6.4 and laying low at 5.4 would give about 20 profit on 100 bet.
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Not so much for you FoG as I think you already know this, but if you don’t have Betfred then try Totesport – same company with same offers ;)
It’s obviously not guaranteed that the lay price will come back down, but most of the anecdotal evidence I have suggests that temporary price boosts certainly causes artificial inflation of the lay price at the exchange. I would imagine that taking advantage of this would be a common strategy in an Exchange Trader’s arsenal.
A lot depends on what the pre-boost lay price was and how it was moving. As you have suggested, Nona Blu was already drifting before the boost was even an issue (I was not aware of that when I posted btw). In that respect, perhaps the continual drift (during the boost) would have happened anyway, and perhaps that particular horse’s lay price will not come back to sit below the boosted back price (as I type, the lay odds have drifted all the way to 7.0)
I prefer to take these offers on short prices favs (like Massaat above) as I believe there is far more likelihood of the lay price contracting than coming anywhere near the boosted back price (as I type Massaat’s lay odds have just come under 2.0). A horse like Nona Blu, that was already priced over 5.0 in a race with several other similarly priced horses must have more scope to drift enough to hurt us than a short priced favourite in a race where the next best horses are 6.5 and 7
None of this is made easier by the fact that Fred pushes these prices at Noon (and earlier on weekends) as the market has not really formed by then so there’s always a little bit of second guessing in terms of what will happen.
As someone not particularly knowledgeable about horses (or Trading, yet!) I am still very much fumbling around with these strategies, so please feel free to ignore everything I have rambled on about above! :D
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Well glad I didn’t gamble on his price coming back down. His lay is up to 7.8 now.
Like you I’m not knowledgeable on horses or trading. So for now I should resist these little temptations.
I think that betfred probably have an idea of which horses are under priced and just boost those ones.
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