Paddy Power – App Special (Not PP Messenger)Tottenham + Man City both to win
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2.875,Can be laid sequentially for potential profit of £12.29 (On £20 stake).
I got this from someone on Oddsmonkey but,I can’t find it yet!!+0March 4, 2017 at 10:25 pm
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Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
If you lay £20.41 as per matts blog post for the 1st game and it loses, surely your 41p down?
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@paulstar808- The £20.41 is to allow for the 2% Smarkets commission if Spurs didn’t win you would win your £20 back,which is the £20.41 you laid minus the 2% comm which is 41p=£20.
+0Paul star . £20.41 is what u win back. U don’t lose that unless it’s evens, spurs were odds on so you’d probably lost about £10… although that must be in matts example
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I get that it’s to cover the 2% but in matts example you get £20 return and it’s nil loss. Surely it’s £0.41 loss
+0Is anyone else waiting for this to be paid out? The Man City match finished 45 minutes ago and my bet status is still pending.
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Same here roycey
+0Oh u mean that way round. £20.41 – 41p – £20 = zero
These take ages to settle, they aren’t in normal markets so don’t appear to settle automatically. Paddy’s traders are shite these days too so could be well into tomorrow judging by the last one I recall
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Just had mine settled
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Mines in ??
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I’ll be honest I’ve followed matt and come out with profit but the maths has fried my mind.
So bet 1 – Paddy Powers Boosted odds of 2.875 for both Tottenham and Man City to win. With £20 this give a potential profit of £37.50. I’m ok with this (I’m not that stupid)
Bet 2 – Lay Tottenham game. Original stake is £20 so divide by 0.98 to allow for 2% commission. This gives you £20.41.
At 1.65 this gives you a potential liability of £13.26.
This is where I get lost. If Tottenham were to lose. Our paddy power bet would now be gone so we’d be minus £20. But our lay bet should cover this, but at odds of 1.65 surely we only recover £13 of that £20 outlay? I cannot see how laying £20.41 covers our £20 at odds of 1.65?
+0You recover £20.41 minus commission – the £13 is the liability if the bet lost in the exchange i.e. If Tottenham won if they lost you would have got £20.41 as that is what you staked – it would have only cost you £13 in liability to win the £20.41
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Wow some people on here really need to give up matched betting its clearly not for you (paulstar) and are you guys really not prepared to even lose 40p when backing these value bets?
Just lay the first bet for £20 …then the next for exactly what the returns on the first bet was… wow… if lost you lose a few pence commission, but saves all the headache of working it out to the penny surely??+0
Firstly, thanks to OP for posting, nice little earner this ;)
@paulstar808 When you lay a bet you are in effect acting as a bookmaker. In this case you have accepted a £20.41 bet from someone at odds you have offered (1.65). Now clearly all you ever stand to gain is their stake (minus commission) and all you stand to lose is the calculatable payout at the odds you offered. The odds could have been 100/1 yet all you would ever stand to gain is the stake (minus commission).I understand how it can be confusing when you are starting out, I remember writing out my first sequential lay 5 times before I did it to make sure it was right and that I understood the mechanics and logic behind it.
+0Matts blog would shown how to make it risk free supert, which is the right thing to do as a detailed guide. Anyone blindly following that will cover the 41p
I agree u need to learn how these work for yourself
I laid £20 after spurs won, mainly as I already had a decent amount of exposure to city on accas so thought I’d cover myself on this one without insurance+0Also if starting out use the examples to make sense of it all
I entered matched betting with a reasonable betting background but was a bit lost midway through the first offer I read on here, then got to the actual numbers in his black boxes and felt like a real light bulb moment as to making more money betting+0
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