Paddy power in shop – Double odds promotion

• Paddy Power are doing a promotion in store. Two meetings per day they guarantee to double the odds on at least one winner at each meeting. Only Ireland I think.

  Thinking about it logically they will never leave it to Race 8. Right? Because then every punter in every shop up and down the country is guaranteed double odds on the winner. It would be financial suicide.

  I think it is fairly unlikely that they would do it on Race 7 as well for more or less the same reason. That is to say that the smart ppl will have figured out that Race 8 is a no-no so will go in big on Race 7 if the double odds bell hasn’t rang yet knowing that the bookie would be really really stupid to wait for Race 8 so would be kind of forced into giving the double odds on Race 7.

  I also think Race 1 is unlikely for different reason. The whole point is to suck the suckers into betting on as many races as possible. Ringing the bell on Race 1 is kind of blowing their load a bit early.

  Anyway, I was in there last night. They have on the screens which race winners they doubled.

  Mon Windsor 3.50 (Race 5)
  Tue Gowran Park 2.35 (Race 2)
  Tue Kempton 7.10 (Race 4)
  Wed Newmarket 2.00 (Race 2)
  Wed Kempton 7.20 (Race 4)
  Thu Carlisle 2.45 (Race 2)
  Thu Chelmsford 6.45 (Race 3)

  Sorry, also need to mention SP bets only. So backing and laying is okay but lay as close to the off as possible in case there is a late surge in the odds.

  Obviously the longer the day goes with no double odds the more the offer is worth. On Race 1 there is a small chance for double odds (1 in 8 or really if you assume Race 7 and 8 are unlikely then 1 in 6), then Race 2 there is maybe 1 in 5 or 1 in 7 (depending if you are buying in to my logic or not).

  I would skip Race 1 because the chance of double odds is pretty small (and I think they are going to string the punters along for more than just one race anyway). I would get in on Race 2 and then steadily increase my stake for Race 3, 4, 5 etc as the chances of a double up gets more likely.

  Also I would stay away from long shots as although the double up would be massive – there is rarely value in long shots at the bookies. I would stay away from very short favourites as the double up would be so small to be hardly worth it – so a €20 bet on a 1/5 pays €4 profit so the bonus would be only an extra €4, then consider lay commission, risk of odds fluctuating, risk of horse not winning – there would be nothing left out of that bonus.

  Any one else doing this offer? Are you finding most of the double odds races are between Race 2 and 5? How are you playing it? Is it profitable for you?

  +0

  

  FoG_BLoG

  59

  October 21, 2016 at 10:03 am