Paddy Power Money back if 2nd to SP Fav
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Paddy Power Money back as a free bet if 2nd to the SP Fav in all races at Punchestown today and tomorrow – max £25. Not sure it’s that great considering how the favourites have been doing so far at Punchestown but thought it might be worth posting but might be worth a shot on a couple of the races if can find v tight odds
They’re also paying 5 places on the 3.40 and 6.05 like Bet365
+0April 28, 2016 at 12:57 pm
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Usually try and do this with the Boylesports 2nd/3rd to fav on same races if the price is ok. Gives you two bites at the cherry.
+0Maybe worth doing this on Douvan’s race, surely one huge favourite can make it!
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Yeah you’d think so wouldn’t you – going to keep an eye on the lay odds nearer the time! Also need to make sure there isn’t another non runner as need 5 in the race for the offer to stand.
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There is never much in these, but def worth it if you can get a low qualifying loss.
I would skip Douvan’s race, not much value there.
I like Bless the Wings, Diamond King and First Figaro.
Basing this off the exchange odds and the to win odds. I also look at the Betting W/O odds. W/O can only mean he wins OR is 2nd to SP. So if you subtract his win odds from his W/O odds you get the probability of 2nd to SP. This is the likelihood that you get a free bet so weight that up against the qualifying losses.
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I would avoid this offer today too not least because of the way the racing has gone at this festival all this week. Douvan is such a heavy favourite that there will be nothing in the exchange for the second and third favourites at all. Combined with PP odds you’ll be taking huge qualifying losses.
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I did this yesterday/day before with yorkill…Vautour…Cue Card thinking all bankers just need a 2nd place as they were such strong favourites, so yeh this offer is usually good with a strong favourite but obviously not with irish racing.
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Surprisingly Chris I thought that would be the case on those other races but the odds werent actually too bad for the other horses, maybe i got lucky
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It isn’t so much the Irish races so much as it’s the end of the hunt season, the big faves are exhausted, the ground is different and other factors.
This offer has been shite this week though. I’ve done 2 or 3 horses in some races in the shop and still not had much luck.2nd to SP Fav can do one!
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It’s gambling full stop. Favourites don’t always win. If you are a 1/2 odds on favourite you’re still expected to lose at least once in three.
If you are so convinced that the favourites don’t win in Ireland or that the favourites don’t win at the end of the hunt season then just lay them.
The race course, the time in the season are all factors that go into making the odds.
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All good points Fog but a lot more heavy faves have lost this week at Punches than expected.
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They’re not even been beaten closely either, they’re just not showing up. Cue Card yesterday was a prime example.
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Got odds of 21 for Ttebbob just before Paddy reduced it to 13, lay odds of 19.5 for a £1.41 qualifying profit. Guess I was there at the right time.
Fingers crossed for Douvan to win and Ttebbob 2nd, unlikely but nothing lost.
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Took early prices on this race this morning. Managed to get Sizzing John at 15/14 and Game Changer at 15/16
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