Price Boosts
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Might be a good idea to have a thread on these. I’ve noticed I can get back on the paddy ones with full stake, but I keep missing them as I’m not used to checking any more.
I like to prove value on boosts by comparing to exchange price and the punt max stake on the boosts esp accas. Commission takes a chunk from the expected value and the odds at exchange always inflate when a good boost is on. That’s my reasons to punt.
Usually I’ll have well over €20 won safely over the day/week that I can transfer to a boost punt fund.
+0March 30, 2018 at 11:32 am
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Said max £29 but then when I went to put it on it said max 18! Oh well got £18 on thanks for the heads up.
+0£4.50!
Not sure on your logic there Chris. You think current odds aren’t accurate? In which case why not trade the exchange price?
Or are you advocating a gamble on teams making it through? Which may well pay off but is still a gamble as there is usually one surprise group stage exit
Or something I’m missing as either of the above would be a tad harsh to brand someone laying now idiotic
+0Given how little most of us can get on, its barely worth doing! A value bet, sure, but even still.
Can’t be arsed to have money in my Sun Bets account and wait a month and half to potentially see anything.
+0Good point James. I should withdraw the rest to push on a few transaction fees their way
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Yeah its clearly a value bet, you can either lay when they get through or let it run to the later stages/all the way. If you cant make the £29 back between now and 15th July then you need to give this up anyway.
+0One dodgy result or an injury to a key player ocould see the price on any team lengthen even if they get through the qualifying rounds.
The FB offers with small stakes are worth punting IMO but trading a fav is always going to be risky.
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If Brazil or Germany are 2nd in the group they play each other in Round 2 in which case both will probably drift.
Seen it in the euros when all the top teams ended in the same side of the draw (Spain and England failed to win their groups, putting Germany Spain France england and Italy all down the bottom half, belgium and Portugal the only decent teams in the top half – Portugal – the winners – had Croatia, Poland and wales to beat on the way to final). All the top teams prices drifted after group.
And last WC when Uruguay beat the group of death, even after that their price drifted because Suarez was suspended.
You’re risking they are eliminated and even if they are not there is no guarantee price will shorten. Mostly it will stay the same as it’s expected they get through anyway.
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Ok guys that’s fine, I’m not advocating gambling or anything but I just don’t see the point of tying up £150+ for 6 weeks in the hope of a £20 win and given the amount of racing between now and 15th July, £29 could and should be made back in half a day.
I also clearly have a lot more confidence in Brazil (and Germany) than most of you.
+0Literally have no idea on football, but know Brazil are good. Can see where you are coming from Chris with the bigger teams odds likely to shorten, but can also see where Bob is coming from with odds drifting due to injury etc.
Max stake was £12 on one account and pennies on the other 2 so decided to skip this one as didn’t really see the point in making/losing a couple of quid over 6 weeks or however long the tournament lasts.
+0I don’t think there’s anything to say the odds aren’t right now, just a case of individual risk profiles and cash flow positions
It’s catch 22 as by the time you’ve got comfortable in EV and taking more risk you shouldn’t be so exchange restricted!
I need some boosts on Spain (not even bothering with s*nbets today) and Argentina.
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It just reminds me of when Sunbets boosted Chelsea to win the FA Cup two seasons ago. Everyone went in and layed their £10 stake (which was a blanket maximum) before they played Peterborough in the Third Round so took something like £3 profit but waited almost a year to get it. Ok so Chelsea lost in the final (I underlayed and made nothing) and the World Cup is different level but I still think you’re mad to take £4.50 from this at the point the offer went up.
Lets move on anyway, price boosts have been disappointing overall so far compared to Euro 2016.
+0Blacktype worth keeping an eye on for world cup arbs.
euro 16 was a few months before my time. Contained a series of short term disappointments that lead to me seeking more from betting, and coming across matched betting and a decent profit increase.
+0Paddys power price. Thiem to win 3-2 in sets boosted to 12.0, laying at 10.0. Was still able to get over £50 on a restricted acc.
+0Paddy had a nice boost on the NBA game last nite, shame there wasnt too much liquidity to lay. Still made £20
Betway you can get simona halep to win 2-1 in sets @ 5, lay is 4.4 (paddys power price is only 4.33)
Edit lay on betfair is 4.2 / smarket 4.4
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Brazil or Spain 5/2. Paddy power, looks value.
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