Probability of getting gubbed
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Hello,
Being new here and trying to figure out how to extend Matched betting
I would ask you how likely it is to be limited if you ever/always lose in the bookie, not making any withdrawals, and passing all the money to betfair.
is it feasible?
will I be limited/*gubbed?Best regards
Miguel
+0March 24, 2019 at 1:46 pm
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New to matched betting?
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Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
In my experience the probablility of getting gubbed in 100%.
It is not at all feasible to always lose to the exchange. No sporting event has a guaranteed outcome. There would be no point to sport if the favourite always won. No-one would ever bet on anything else and gambling would cease to be. We would all be millionnaires by simply laying the non-favourite at the exchange and never even bother with using bookmakers.
The best you can do is try and get as much money from them as you can, make absolutely sure you can cover your bets in every eventuality, which includes money inevitably moving from the exchange to the bookmaker, and having to withdraw.
good luck
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Don’t take value, don’t take offers. Be a mug and bet on random stuff. Get addicted to Casino, you know.
The only way.In all seriousness, the above is kind of true. I believe if you don’t do every offer, don’t go maximum stakes and mix it in with ‘random’ bets that will lose you money and also play slots they are more likely to keep you on.
Problem is, more of your time is taken up for less reward. I can’t be arsed with that.+1But just imagine that i never request a withdraw in the bookie ? That i have a exchange bank huge size to cover whem e win at the.bookie ? I take 50€ deposite bônus…pass it to Exchange….get a reload bonus or whatever….lose onde bookie….with several attemps and passesd it to the.exchanges….never asking a withdraw in the bookie…..is it possible ? Best regards
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IMHO being gubbed has nothing to do with withdrawing and everything to do with taking value as feltt1p outlines. What could be more muggy than withdrawing? I think it looks far more suspicious leaving thousands in an account rather than taking it out to spent your winnings.
And you still can’t ensure that your bet will lose to the exchange. Please stop thinking that, you WILL get stung.
By all means try it, although if you have that much money I don’t know why you would bother matched betting, its hard work!
+1Hello
probably I did not explain myself well, what I intend is to always have the bookmaker’s account close to zero by passing the money to betfair. for example, 50 € deposit bonus … matchbet it until all the money is in betfair and zerno or almost zero in the bookmaker.
Then take advantage, for instace of another bonus, a reload bonus for example 50% of the deposit of € 50 … matchbet it to pass the money to betfair and so on …..trying that the bookmaker account close to € 0.Of course I will have to have a calculated sum of money at betfair to get the money if I eventually win in the bookie … starting small bets so that Liability at betfair is not too high. is it feasible? I would like to hear your opinions ,,, best regards
+0No
How are you going to win all the money at the exchange? If you know please let us know and we’ll bet the exchange side only
You could increase bookie bet, Martingale style so that when you eventually lose everything moves across…. but it’s entirely possible you will run out of money at the exchange and rack up huge qualifying losses trying
And it won’t make much difference. Bookies hate us taking value not withdrawing. Withdrawals can trigger account reviews, but on the same hand so can betting £2k on something with close odds if you are trying to lose to the exchange.
It’s natural to have these ideas of account preservation, many people do … but take it from experience that the time is better spent taking value and learning how to adapt when gubbed
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Hello mig21. You are explaining yourself perfectly. I dont think that you are understanding the answer.
1. You will still get gubbed for taking the offers, bookies don’t like that win or lose.
2. You will find it impossible to move your money from bookie to exchange. You cant decide to “lose” a bet. If you could then forget about bookies and just lay.The value is on the bookie side of the bet (because they are offering bonus’s, boosts, offers, freebets), so long term you would expect your bookie balances to grow.
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