Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
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Posting here, daily whenever possible, naps I spot when they are each way arbing throughout the day. With ranking system from 1-5 stars.
Feel free to post anything on this thread regarding them/queries👍+3October 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm
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Cont…
16/06
335 R ASCOT- TIS MARVELOUS 33/1 **** (365/SKY) 3 PLACES 11R
Good value price atm. Good solid form over distance/going and in high quality races. Its value atm at 33s and I would expect it to come in a decent bit more.
+0What a massive drift for west end girl.
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Think it steamed back in pretty much to small E/W arb levels at show price time- Prob went off about same price as the BOG 33s. Ran like a drifter. Massive value in just about all the others- but little proving profitable- I overlay some myself when arb/value is big near the off -so did alright on these 9 today.
Thanks for pointing it out- top manJust avin a look now at how they did at SP
Verdana Blue 11/2 – SP 4/1 2nd
Tis Marvelous 33/1- SP 33/1 4th
Hit The Bid 66-1- SP 40/1 10th
Gen Shiel 16-1- SP 10-1 7th
Trefoil 11/2- SP 4-1 9th
Sergei Profnegov 40-1 SP 28-1 11th
Blue Laurette 14-1 – SP 8-1 15th
Fox Chairman 7-1 SP 7-1 10thAnd the 1 drifter – West End Girl 25-1 – SP 33-1 10th
6 came in nicely
2 off Same price
1 driftPlenty of decent dosh to be made on the final lay price markets on that bunch today with overlay stratergys- If your like me and dont like too much overlaying/ Or overlaying the extra place markets- then only small profits to be had.
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But of course its not a tipping horses thread- just a tipping E/way value thread- How people overlay their arb posistions is up to them- and of course minimise damage when theres any drift.
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I went into those 9 races myself- laying just before off-with strong posistion/extra place shots on 7 out of those 9. But a frustrating day, for me profits wise= as no big win arbs came 1st, or any of the free shots at the extra place/s spots come through, to cash in much bigger.
We go again tomorrow…+0Cheers for the incites. Will be following tomorrow
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No worries mate, any critisim on bad calls is very fair- but would’nt mind a few more ‘nice one’s etc’ from people/followers-when the big value arbs -either lock in a nice profit/ or cash in big!.
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Funny thing is when I napped West End Girls 25-1 late last night-(and I did fancy it be competitive/come in more)- it was laying about 23.0 on the win! But I dont lay early myself- so was a bit shocked when it dived out to 50+ eway! Then steamed back in too small e/way arb again- then off out a bit again. Im not sure, but as that was a big value 4 places race with PP- It may have gone off at a small 4 place eway arb/ or thereabouts!??
+0Just to chip in if I may. I got on West End Girl purely because of Scabba’s tip on this thread. I missed the 25-1 and took 22-1 so 23/23 on the win part for no loss. That gave me place odds of 5.4 (4 places). I played this one as bad as I possibly could by panicking when the horse drifted out and layed the place (on the 4 TP market) at 4.5 when it was at its worst (I think) – that’s still an 18% guaranteed return based on your EW place stake (£25 = £4.55ish locked in). I underlayed for no loss hoping for the place.
The price came way back in towards the off to around 40s I think and I’m pretty sure the place price went down to around 3.5 (over 50% ROI on original place stake).
To compare with another selection, Sergi Prokofiev (another I got because of this thread) – Again no loss on the win part for me at 41/38 when I took it. I locked a guaranteed place arb of 9/ 5.8 (over 50% ROI of original place stake).
Keep up the good work Scabba
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Cheers man. I need to do overlays for guarnteed profits/free extra place shots more often, like you do. Because at the minute my long term lay just the stakes off, as often as is possible, and let all the value ride- is not reaping me the big profits the recent crop of very big value arbs should have done. Overlaying is so much better for the consistent regualr arb profits, and adds confidence to keep scalping/studying to the maximum. At the moment I’m a wee bit deflated, as profits wise the last 2/3 days of long/hard graft have not paid off that highly with my own laying stratergies. Even not cashing in that well on your own monster run of value arb/steamers. But patience is the key with my underlay stratergy I know- and the big payoffs/buses will roll in soon- to make it all seem like yesterdays news!
I think when the opening 2 race monster win arbs/free value shots at 2×2 extra places- Glen Shiel 16-1 -and the one we both had Mohather 9-1- failed to win/hit the frames- Along with other big value shots in those two- the great value day seemed to be slipping away. Today I had 5 free shots at profits ranging from $200- $600 in the 4- 1 to 10-1 odds range+ a good few others at higher prices/smaller pay outs, and more shots at +$150-$250 on extra places. But nothing came in the desired spots for my own underlaying stratergy. Tomorrow is a tougher day value wise..but could well be, as so often happens, the lower expected value day actually reels off more big pay offs..As long as I keep arbing value well (and yourself/andy etc) It will all $ have to come out in the wash soon! For the underlayers!+0
Anyway going forward (certainly for this week- and much more so from the 28th- when betting shops re-open in Ireland) I’ll post up any each way value naps overnight/before 10am. This is because Im obviously busy getting value on whenever possible through out the day myself, and also sending a few later in the day naps out via phone/devices to a few people on my list. Also far easier to get on at advised price early in the morning, than it is If I post a rapid spot in the afternoon.Every pt of price is vital- and taking a price shorter than advised is most often not that valueble. Also all naps are posted when the markets show the price can be laid off at that time for guarnteed lock in- or with free/cheap valueble extra place shots. If people want to wait to lay nearer the off time- when it is easier/more tight laying options- like I often do ,then some will increase in arb value/some will drift. Always an added bonus/bit of insurance is to get your ‘bets’ on with a firm paying BOG- as this oftenhelps out a bit with the times when the napped price drifts.
+0Scabba, these value tips are quality, anybody picking these up would pay good money elsewhere. I don’t think people appreciate the work that goes into them.
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Cheers pal. How did you get on today?
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Cont….
Ascot Day 2
(52) 115 R ASCOT- BRAIN EPSTEIN 11-1 ***(PP/BFAIR/SKY) 22R 6 PLACES- 1m
Short and sweet review- ticks all the boxes for me..current price value/1m distance/going/recent form- was a good 2nd/12 over 7f l last week at Haydock. With 6 places up for grabs- certainly arb value atm…potential to go off shorter, pretty good
+0Haha, nice one mate. I was just about to put this one up in the 2nd day thread!
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