1. Forums
  2. Newbies

Shortlisting contenders for matched betting.

  • Good evening.

    First post here so please be considerate it it’s been asked several times before.

    I have a free £5.00 bet over the weekend and as an example have looked at the prices available for 4 matches on Skybet (Bet) and Smarkets (Lay). All played 22/9/2018 and itemised at the end of the post.

    Thanks to the free bet calculator, I have been able to find the best payout (Leeds v Birmingham – Away) and, for interest, the lowest payout (Villa v Wednesday – Home). So far so good.

    But, short of analysing every bet this way, how do forumites narrow down the list of potential bets? As mentioned above, the lowest difference between back and lay is Villa v Wednesday which pays out £1.83 whilst the Leeds v Birmingham (Draw) pays £3.37. Unfortunately, the rest of the figures follow a vague pattern but don’t have the same profit when the odds difference is the same.

    Can anyone point me in the right direction with the arithmetic please? Obviously I don’t expect to be able to take in a page of prices and instantly select the best, but hopefully there will be some way of drawing up a shortlist.

    Hope all this makes sense.

    Regards

    Bassdrinker

    Match Bet Lay Stake Profit

    Villa v Wednesday
    Home 1.60 1.63 £1.86 £1.83
    Draw 3.90 4.40 £3.31 £3.24
    Away 5.50 6.80 £3.32 £3.25

    Derby v Brentford
    Home 3.00 3.40 £2.96 £2.90
    Draw 3.40 3.55 £3.40 £3.33
    Away 2.30 2.42 £2.71 £2.65

    Ipswitch v Bolton
    Home 1.91 2.06 £2.21 £2.16
    Draw 3.30 3.50 £3.30 £3.24
    Away 4.20 4.70 £3.42 £3.35

    Leeds v Brimingham
    Home 1.80 1.87 £2.16 £2.12
    Draw 3.60 3.80 £3.44 £3.37
    Away 4.50 5.20 £3.38 £3.31

    +0
    Bassdrinker
    0
    September 21, 2018 at 9:07 pm

  • New to matched betting?

    My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

    Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

    Gilbs 16 September 21, 2018 at 11:28 pm

    Bassdrinker, the key thing to remember when extracting profit from free bets is that in nearly every case, the free bet stake will not be included in the returns. Thus, a £5 free bet placed on a selection at evens; i.e. odds of 2.0, would only pay back £5 of the £10 winnings. The £5 stake which makes up 50% of the overall winnings would not be paid out to you. Therefore to minimise the impact of the stake being witheld from winnings and to maximise your profits, you need to place your free bets on selections with higher odds; i.e 10.0. In this instance, you would receive 90% of the returns as profit, rather than only the 50% mentioned previously.

    Once this concept is understood, you will start to realise that it is the % difference between back/lay odds that is important when selecting odds for extracting profit from free bets. The lower the % difference the better it is for extracting profit;

    e.g. back odds 2.0, lay odds 2.5, difference of half a point. Half a point as a % of lay odds is 20%.

    back odds 10.0, lay odds 10.5, difference of half a point. Half a point as a % of lay odds is less than 5%

    Hope this helps. Remember to think in terms of % differences.

    +0
    Bassdrinker 0 September 22, 2018 at 9:04 pm

    Thanks Gilbs.

    That’s perfect thanks. And putting it like that makes it more obvious. It just shows that after so much reading (and reading), another explanation can cut through the confusion.

    Thanks again, it is appreciated.

    Bd

    +0
    LivelyArts 7 September 22, 2018 at 9:13 pm

    Bassdrinker – have a read of this if you haven’t… https://matchedbettingblog.com/free-bets-guide/. for me the biggest issue is not letting the bookies spot you are matching your free bets so footy accas (laid at Betfair or Smarkets are good as they attract less attention than the 8.0 bets against 2.0 favourites in any sport – I also punt at least a quarter of my free bets as accumulators/accas on horses or footy – a fiver free bet as a trixie on 3 horses is a good one – I know little about form so tend to go for the most chosen ones on the naps table of the Racing post!! It is surprising how often these come in and even if only two do you’ll clear more than your free bet was worth in most cases…The same goes for 3 x 1.75 to 2.25 home teams on footy… 🙂

    +0
Viewing 3 replies - 1 through 3 (of 3 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Share this page

New Customer Offers

0% Commission for 60 Days

T&C's Guide

Bet £10, Get £50 in Free Bets

T&C's Guide

£30 in Free Bets

T&C's Guide

£30 in Free Bets

T&C's Guide

£30 Money Back if Bet Loses

T&C's Guide

£30 in Free Bets

T&C's Guide

£30 in Free Bets

T&C's Guide

£30 in Free Bets

T&C's Guide
View all new customer offers