SkyBet 13.50 Doncaster – Money Back if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

Max refund £25. Money Back as a free bet.

Now there must be a way of locking in some profit by laying off on the place markets, but its late and my brain is struggling to come up with the maths.

Any thoughts?

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BillHill
0

November 5, 2016 at 12:28 am

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Mr Crispy 34 November 5, 2016 at 7:51 am

Yes (in theory)..

George Bowen can be backed at 8 on Skybet.

If you can get him at 8 on the exchange (you can’t as I write this) and say 2.75 for the place (you can’t get that either) then you could for example:-

Back £25 at 8 with Skybet, potential profit £175
Lay £22 on the win at 8, potential liability £154
Lay £8 on the place at 2.75, potential liability £14

The possible outcomes are then:-

George Bowen wins – up £175 with Sky, down £168 with the exchange (£154 + £14). Profit £7.

George Bowen finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th – Effectively down £5 with Sky (Lose the bet of £25 but gain £20 for the free bet – based on 80% extraction). At the exchange, you’ll be up £20.90 (assuming 5% commission) on the win and down £14 on the place. Profit £1.90.

George Bowen finishes 5th or worse – Down £25 with Sky, but up £28.50 at the exchange (£20.90 + £7.60 – again assuming 5% commission). Profit £3.50.

If you’re a whizz with excel I’m sure you could come up with a calculator to even out the profit.

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Dave_Jones 12 November 5, 2016 at 8:25 am

Excellent work Mr Crispy, thanks for taking the time t explain it so well.

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betman 41 November 5, 2016 at 10:12 am

Should done this last night as George bowen was tighter odds then, win only mind. Hopefully some opportunity nearer off.
Will slightly underlay to leave a small profit on win then hope for place. Is a risk approach though with size/type field

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BillHill 0 November 5, 2016 at 11:25 am

Thanks Mr C. I knew there was a way, but I just couldn’t think straight. Cheers.

However, I’m not sure we are going to get close odds on this race, as it a very open one. (bookies aren’t daft when picking races and offering these promos)

I think I’m just going to try and get as close a match as possible and keep my fingers crossed it places.

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sleepless 12 November 5, 2016 at 11:43 am

If big QL make it not worth the risk then just punt that amount on straight win instead

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dannyn87 0 November 5, 2016 at 11:45 am

Odds way out. Just saw albernathy 9 with coral but 10 smarkets that think about best we going to get. Iv backed George Bowen at 8 with sky Hoping it to drop to around 8.8 so can lay

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albatross 4 November 5, 2016 at 2:00 pm

Boom! Odds improved and got on 4th place.

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Pavlon 3 November 5, 2016 at 2:03 pm

This is disgraceful from Smarkets.

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albatross 4 November 5, 2016 at 2:08 pm

abysmal

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betman 41 November 5, 2016 at 2:12 pm

What did smarkets do wrong??

I watched a few of the top prices (not as far down as the 4th place which came in) and nothing came up. Delay in placing a bet saved me losing on a last ditch punt to lay in play which would failed

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Pavlon 3 November 5, 2016 at 2:15 pm

The site isn’t working at all. It’s been down for 20 mins.

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Sy 3 November 5, 2016 at 2:20 pm

What are smarkets playing at. Right when racing starts and its still down 25 minutes later

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jameslegg97 11 November 5, 2016 at 2:21 pm

The odds were terrible on Smarkets. That might go to some way to explain it in that case.. I haven’t missed one of these money back races in months, but the odds never got close on any horse.

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Sy 3 November 5, 2016 at 2:27 pm

up for 1 minute and goes down again

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betman 41 November 5, 2016 at 3:23 pm

You can’t blame them for the odds!
And if the site went down after the race started can’t blame that for this offer.
Was a pretty generous offer for normal punters with limited match betting opportunities,

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