theoretical profit of monthly acca insurance offers

It’s not doable. 550 per month is just not possible. You’d have to have four suitable games every single day of the month for some of these offers!

Also, £20 profit from £50 stake at Hills is not a typical return. I’d say £12-£15 is more realistic.

Of course it’s possible. As an example, the expected gain from accumulators last week on international matches was as high as £30 from a £50 accumulator. This was an extreme case, though. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect at least £15. If there’s suitable matches, you can load up on those and finish the accumulators by varying the final leg on future dates. The EV from sites such as Paddy (with minimum odds per leg) is generally lower than £10.

The real concern I would have is that – as Starlord alluded to – there aren’t too many candidate matches. Therefore, your EV may very well be extremely high from placing 10+ accumulators per day, but they’re unlikely to be independent (you will have to reuse matches across sites)… I’d be concerned about risk of ruin.

The final thing to consider is extraction of free bets. Usually it’s considered best to guarantee an extraction from free bets by laying on the exchanges. If you had 10 accumulators which were identical, let’s say, and all had exactly one leg which lost, you’d need to extract 10 x £25 (might be higher for some). That’s £250 of free bets to extract… If you aim for 90% extraction, you’d probably need £2,500 on the exchange to cover the liability for laying. On average you will find around 30% of accumulators have exactly one leg which loses. I think the time spent extracting this number of free bets will be higher than laying off the accas!

By all means, you could probably achieve 550 x £6 (from £25 stakes) = £3300 +EV in a month. You could estimate your risk of ruin and indeed variance, but this is purely dependent on how much your accumulators’ legs overlap between sites.

Yes, exactly. In the case of last week, you were spoiled for choice with 1.01-1.03s and you can choose any high odds matches as your final legs.

As always: you want to maximise the probability that exactly one leg loses as this is where the value comes from. 1.05/1.10 is far superior to 1.5/1.51…

You will have no problems with large, well-known bookmakers.
Good luck!

A total odds requirement sounds almost the same as not having minimum odds. The first 4 or 5 legs (5 or 6 acca) should be as low as possible, while the last leg should be as high as possible but with close odds.

I’m usually pulling in an EV of £5-£10 on every acca I place on Hills, and between £3-£7 elsewhere more or less.

Are the expected returns above (~£15) guaranteed EVs for every acca you’re putting on? Or is this exaggerated through underlaying legs, or through spray and praying that 1 leg loses?