Throwing away value on the exchange
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I was thinking about something MarkCorrigan was saying a few weeks back about punters breaking their necks to lay off boosts and giving away all of the value to the exchange
With this in mind for the Haye v Bellew William Hill boost today I layed off £200 @ 1.73 at 6:30pm and waited until 7:00pm until Hills offered their boost… the odds then proceeded to rise and people fell over themselves to lay off their £20’s… I traded out of the position @ 1.79 giving a small profit on the trade…
… I then proceeded to back for £100 @ 1.79 and waited for the market to settle and I’ve just layed off my £100 liability @ 1.57… two profitable trades by just watching folk throw the value all over the place… greened out and waiting for the main event
Just thought I’d share this.
+0March 4, 2017 at 9:54 pm
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Well done Tony.
If you know why and which way the odds move you can trade on an exchange and not have to use the nasty bookies who don’t welcome winners.
+0Thanks for sharing this Tony, I have wondered would it be possible to do a similar thing with the Sky weekend acca boost they do? I have not looked at this in any detail to see if the odds vary in a similar way to what you saw in the Hay/Bellew fight but I think they might do.
I have read on various trading forums that there is money to be made just from the exchanges from the various boosts that bookies offer, and taking advantage of the matched bettors.
It tends to be very cloak and dagger on those forums (I can understand why) and no one spells out exactly what they are doing. So once again thanks for sharing your experience.
+0I’d posted this before on the hills boosts. I used lower stakes but worked a couple times, and don’t work once (looked like a trader didn’t get the message and a bot appeared to be pumping 2k into the exchange every time it got eaten up)
+0At what time and what weekday do the different bookies give away their boosts?
+0The trouble with the Sky acca is that often the acca may not appear on Betfair until after Sky have boosted it. Furthermore as the accas aren’t generally super popular markets, you’ll find the odds tend to start fairly high anyway, for the most part.
There will be opportunities of course – I’ve looked at doing stuff with it, but generally its not as easy as it might seem. Typically the lay odds will sit at 2 ticks below breaking even (around £10 potential profit on £30 if underlayed by the punter).
I think the other week the odds dropped a fair it closer to kick off because of team announcements, but other times I’ve seen the lay rise to a point theres absolute zero profitability on the arb.
Not discouraging it btw. Mark was of course right about what he was saying, but I think the nature of the acca markets on Betfair makes it difficult. Often in the past I’ve actually requested the market as it hasn’t been there for hours after Sky announcing the boost.
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Unscrupulous as it sounds… I’ve actually started using the Blog comments on each offer to gauge how much general “MMB’s (Mug Matched Bettors < a term I’ve just fashioned) are throwing back to the exchange with their lays!!… You’d be amazed how many tonight for example have taken a guaranteed £4 on the Sky boost… Some laying last night @ 9.2!!!… it was trading @ 8.0 early this evening!
I’m throwing a bit of time into studying this and I’ll add an update on it for those who are interested ??
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What I would be interested to know is the best time to back the boosts on the exchange. I mean when do you get the best price? Right after sky announce the boost? First thing in the morning? Right before kickoff?
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I will certainly look out for your update as I am very interested in this. I have now been gubbed at most of the better bookies, and Sky have restricted me to about a quid on their boosted accas.
What I find strange though is if so many MMBs (nice term by the way) are laying this on the exchange I would have expected that to cause the price to drift out not to come in to 8. Perhaps some news caused the price to come in.
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This always happens on so many boosts that WH & Coral do. Soon as it goes live the lay shoots up and eventually comes back down to the normal odds.
Have always thought about whacking a ton and then laying it, but guess i’m never confident enough to do so.
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That’s one of the things I’m gonna be looking at @fog… at what point does it plateaux on the exchange and give the best back odds possible… of course it depends on how early the boost is announced and how quickly betfair add the market thereafter…
… we can assume most MMB’s will NOT back the boost until there’s a suitable market for the lay… So when the market is added we can expect a sharp rise in odds in quite a short timeframe (more so at weekends)
Obviously the William Hill boosts are a different animal all together as they give us a decent heads up… We have the opportunity to take TWO trades and lay a price in advance knowing money is gonna be thrown at the market at a certain time… and again wait for the plateaux, trade out… jump back in and trade out for our final position once the odds have again hit the correct/normal price…
Matched betting has always been the key but maybe we’ve been looking at it a bit two dimensionally… there’s definitely money to be made here… it’s just cracking it
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@dave_jones… they’d layed it out to 9.2 last night if the comments on the blog can be believed?… I saw it as low as 7.8 pre kick off tonight as the market settled down
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I’m gonna wait till all the MMB’s jump on the SMB (Savvy Matched Bettors) bandwagon then start laying the Sky Boosts as normal :)
+0I think tonight’s boost was unusual in that both Madrid and Munich were both shortening substantially increasing the value of the boost.
I think I read on the blog that the boost shortened from 9.0 from 10.0
+0Yes it’s worth noting the individuals odds made the acca a 7.3 shot in the morning. Come kick off that was down to around 6.0.
Probably the reason the boost shortened. I’ve never seen the sky boost get close to ‘true odds’.
Unlike the Coral and Hills ones.
+0I must admit Tony S, I find your pejorative term of MMB a little offensive. I realise that long term, some of these offers have a greater EV if not layed (or traded on the exchange), however I don’t feel people should be derided for being risk averse.
For all the people on here who are clearly making a lot of money from punting value bets or trading (and congrats to them), there are another lot of people who aren’t talking about the fact that they’ve used exactly the same tactics and lost their entire float.
I don’t think there’s really a right or wrong way to approach these things, it’s just about whether you are willing to put your hard earned profits on the line or not.
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