Throwing away value on the exchange
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I was thinking about something MarkCorrigan was saying a few weeks back about punters breaking their necks to lay off boosts and giving away all of the value to the exchange
With this in mind for the Haye v Bellew William Hill boost today I layed off £200 @ 1.73 at 6:30pm and waited until 7:00pm until Hills offered their boost… the odds then proceeded to rise and people fell over themselves to lay off their £20’s… I traded out of the position @ 1.79 giving a small profit on the trade…
… I then proceeded to back for £100 @ 1.79 and waited for the market to settle and I’ve just layed off my £100 liability @ 1.57… two profitable trades by just watching folk throw the value all over the place… greened out and waiting for the main event
Just thought I’d share this.
+0March 4, 2017 at 9:54 pm
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@bobster… firstly if I’ve offended you in any way I apologise as this wasn’t my intention,… however after seeing some of the absolute garbage and insults thrown around on this forum in the past few days and weeks, if you find the term MMB offensive you may need to reevaluate your acceptance or non acceptance of such language when using a forum like this?… I myself almost called it a day and now refuse to add comment to any thread that includes people “kicking off” and throwing bile around!… that’s not why I use this site!
Anyway the term MMB wasn’t intended to be an offensive term,… just akin to using Mug Bets, Mug Punter etc… I’ve no issue with people taking the risk free approach if that’s what they’re comfortable with, however if that creates an opportunity on the exchange for others to take advantage of then why shouldn’t we be free to discuss that?
Like I said MarkCorrigan planted the seed in a very cryptic way and then disappeared into the night again… I just want to explore other avenues
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There is a safe way to do it though bobster. Put 100 or 50 or even 10 from your last month profit and stick it in a punt fund. Punt out of this on boosts and non-sequential accas if you lose it you’ve just lost whatever amount you were comfortable with. If you win then your punt fund can start growing really fast. Always check the exchange to prove you are getting value and some.
Or use the Kelly Criterion to give a somewhat safe and cautious staking limit.
I say boosts because sometimes to lay these you are losing half the value at least by laying off, and I say non-sequential acca’s because this gives you an extra opportunity to bet that you cant make just matched betting.
Dont risk your entire float!
Maybe mug matched bettors is a bit derogatory but no more derogatory than referring to others as mug bettors.
+0When you read through the comments on the blog (as opposed to the forum) I think the term “mug” is quite apt.
There are obviously quite a few people commenting who have absolutely no clue what they are doing (other than following basic instructions).
I’ve decided that in future for some offers to underlay and use the Free Bets to make up any losses (if required). At the moment I just can’t seem to move money onto the exchange fast enough (my exchange accounts are about 8k down over the last 2 weeks).
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I learned a long time ago that bookies just offer price boosts to boost the exchanges. Betfred are especially good at doing this with their horse racing boosts on Saturdays. I reckon maybe 1 out of 5 they offer actually end up arbing and winning.
I’ve said on here for a while that boosts should be treated as value punts so dont see a Sky acca boost and get excited about underlaying £25 for a tiny £10 profit. Just stick £10 on it or one of your free bets. Long term you’ll be in profit with price boosts and if you cant afford to lose £10 here and there when they dont come in then you’re not very good at this in the first place.
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One of the best examples of throwing away value was the Sunbets boost on Chelsea to win the FA Cup that they put up on the day the third round kicked off. There was a £10 max stake and Chelsea were home to Peterborough yet people on here were still laying it off for a guaranteed £3 profit that potentially you won’t get until May. Madness.
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Great phrase Tone, like that! haha
Totally agree Chris, it’s madness. We’ve seen MB evolve a lot in the past year to 2 years, even on here. The nature of the offers and so forth. You have to adapt to keep doing well with all of this, and punting value bets is next way forward. Most are already doing or starting to do this, a lot are reluctant to change and that’s fine too. But, these are the same people that will be arsing around for a fiver here and there while wasting so much time doing it that it’s not worth it. Then they’ll wonder and ask why or how they can make more money from this like before because the low hanging fruit aren’t enough for them anyway because it’s pretty bare.
I do what FOG suggested, use your profits from MB to reinvest into punting or value bets. You’ll be surprised how quickly a new separate fund can grow.
Before I saw the exchange as our saving grace, it helped us to make so much money by laying everything off. Now I can’t wait to get away from it because it’s just eating up profits and we’re paying a lot in commission, thousands in my current case, every year when there’s actually no need for it.
Set up a separate fund with your profits.
Cut out exchange and grow that new fund.
Make a lot more money every year.
Simple really.+0
Or half underlay on favourites
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Said it before, underlay all free bets £25 and below on horses that are price 10/1 and above. Long term your profit will be much bigger .
+0Interesting theory and one that I 100% agree with in principle, I am also thinking of looking at when one bookie is top price and the exchange is matching that price, seems to happen a lot where bookie will shorten their price to match the others near the off and the exchange price in turn shortens, so whether exchange shortening can be predicted
In terms of free bets, I only ever use them on between say 6.0 to 8.0 on super tight matches, whether that helps be under radar I don’t know, strangely enough I really never hit the winner on the free bets
Especially when one free bet could be £50 then the next £10 then a £70, guess whatever variance people are happy to take
For example the bet365 4/1 offer, say on average hit one a week if sticking to only Saturdays and big tv meetings, I can only remember having a winner on the risk free bet once in 10 months
And when betting the 4/1 to 7/1 shots that would be bad variance for me
+0My exactly sure what u mean by only offering price boosts to boost the exchanges Chris?
But if only 1 in 5 boost arbs and wins, when they are generally under 4-1 then that surely counters the theory of them being value punts?As for variance ppl seem to be banging on about mark corrigan bringing up this unknown principle, so don’t forget the numbers he churned on variance and chance of ruin.
+0Hi,
I’m not sure this is the right thread for this but it is sort of linked so thought I’d piggyback onto it!
I’ve been MBing for a few months now, mostly football related boosts, refunds and bet x to get y offers so all pretty small time and certainly not the amounts that I’ve seen other people mentioning on this forum so I appreciate I’m not talking mega money here.
I’m wondering why when people mention odds for boosts or for qualifying bets, they only ever mention the lay odds at an exchange rather than another bookies odds? I often find using another bookie beats the exchange prices, especially if, as already mentioned, people are rushing to lay off boosts, presumably because across all bookies, the markets are more robust against fluctuations than the exchanges?
Some examples:
Haye v Bellew: William Hill boosted the fight to end in rounds 1-6 to odds of 2.00 and this forum mentioned lay prices on Betfair were around 1.79 meaning a guaranteed £2.15 on £20. The alternative that I chose was Bet Fred offering 2.625 for the fight to last more than 6.5 rounds meaning betting £20 at WH and £15 at Bet Fred would be either £5 or £4.38 profit.
I also find this approach good for things like Hill’s 4 means more and Ladbrokes’ bet £20 for £10 offers as I can usually get these for no qualifying loss. Real Madrid v Villareal is a 4 means more match and at the moment you can get BTTS yes at WH for 2.0 and BTTS no at Bet Victor for 2.0 so obviously no QL. I’ve also had a few where using this method I’ve hit 2 offers like 4 means more and Coral’s or Sky’s weekly bet £25 get £5 for no loss with is nice. It’s also a free mug bet!
Like I said, I know I’m talking small amounts but I’ll quite often look at Smarkets and think that the QL is too large to bother but then have a flick through Oddschecker and find examples like stated and for the minute this takes, I find it worthwhile but it never seems to be mentioned on here so thought I’d share and ask why?!
+0It is mentioned quite a bit, known as dutching if u r just seeing reference to that.
But it has limited suitability as u can’t always back all other options somewhere else, not for a bigger loss anyway.
Good if u can get it as well as no commission+0Good if you can get it, but also you’re going to win at the bookies, which you want to avoid if you can, unless the account is gubbed. Obviously though if the difference between laying and dutching is so different, then yeah its probably a no brainer, but it isn’t always due to over round etc.
+0Thanks Betman and James,
Appreciate it’s only relevant to certain 2 outcome markets plus I seem to only win with the bookies anyway!+0Anybody got any good links to guides or forums on trading? I’m gubbed at most of the bookies now and really need to find a way to carry on. I have been making small profits on the exchanges by backing football teams on shorter odds usually between 1.4 and 1.7 and then if my team starts to look like its going to loose laying off as the game progresses to cut my looses down. So far I am in profit but I don’t know if this is positive EV long term? I guess this is a basic form of trading I’m doing?
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