Tonybet – Marine Le Pen 10/1

Laying at 8.2 on Smarkets

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Number 14
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April 26, 2017 at 3:22 pm

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a 3 May 4, 2017 at 10:48 pm

who knows which way round. he (the guy as an individual) could have bought a huge put option on euros ages ago, and is trying to recoup the sunk cost if there’s no volatility (if macron wins). If Le Pen wins, then he has to pay out but also makes a killing off a put option.

All speculation but I can’t see that they’d intentionally go big or bust on this. Also, why would we assume that this is the one they’re going to go bust on if they did similar for Brexit/Trump. They managed to pay those out so why not this.

Lastly, she is never going to win. She was god awful in the debate.

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Chris 24 May 5, 2017 at 12:01 am

She could very well win but no one should be worried about Tonybet not paying out. They have a liability at which they draw a line like all bookmakers and that obviously hasn’t been hit yet. The exchange rate must also help.

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a 3 May 5, 2017 at 12:19 am

What do you reckon her chances are? I was debating underlaying for a big potential profit but I really can’t see it happening so guaranteed the profit instead. A little unsure now, but I think that’s only because of the potential profit on it.

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Chris 24 May 5, 2017 at 1:30 am

Oh I would take the guaranteed profit on this all day long, I’m just saying its possible she could win.

I made nice money from betting at the exchange on Vote Leave and Trump as I watched results come in. Definitely going to be keeping an eye on this election. Le Pen’s odds are longer too.

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betman 41 May 5, 2017 at 7:05 am

Ignore my above post, if he’s Russian then of course he’d benefit by an unstable France/euro
But either way we agree there’s multiple options beyond tonyb etc laying at the exchange to afford their payout.

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cosmos 6 May 5, 2017 at 8:38 am

Got on last night. My max stake was £2.72! When I did the sign up offer every bet I had with Tonybet won, I was restricted after my first bet and had to place dozens of bets to complete the wagering so wasn’t expecting to be allowed much on this.

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RyanB 16 May 5, 2017 at 6:05 pm

My god anyone see their emails? They’ve now boosted it again to 12.5!

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jameslegg97 11 May 5, 2017 at 6:42 pm

Lay odds drifted to 10.5 now though. At least it shows how confident they are she won’t win haha.

Also, I don’t think the bookmakers odds across the board are what they would be had Brexit and Trump not happened. The actual results of polls and the first round voting definitely wouldn’t make you think that she’s any sort of value at 7/1 really.

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RyanB 16 May 6, 2017 at 1:12 pm

Now boosted to 13.0 madness

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betman 41 May 6, 2017 at 1:43 pm

The lay is 11.5 now though, they’re just keeping themselves ahead of that

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jameslegg97 11 May 7, 2017 at 5:40 pm

FYI guys, she’s now laying at 38 and Bet365 have her at 26. So yeah, Macron looks pretty much locked in now. Should get confirmation before midnight. Hopefully they settle the markets quickly! Annoying having so much tied up for so long..

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betman 41 May 7, 2017 at 6:56 pm

We may have to wait longer. The market is for next French pm not who wins today’s vote, so could be another week depending how they play it.
If macron decides not to accept or gets hit by a bus tomorrow then he’ll never be pm…. although he will accept, and looks both ways before crossing

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jameslegg97 11 May 7, 2017 at 7:04 pm

Le Pen just went to 260, and Macron can’t be back as the lay has hit 1.01. Not sure what just happened – haven’t seen any news yet.

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jameslegg97 11 May 7, 2017 at 7:05 pm

Okay there we go, Macron project to win by a fairly huge margin.

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betman 41 May 7, 2017 at 7:08 pm

Projected result was 7pm with macron on 65% vote

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