William Hill MBS Races – 24th Feb

Does anyone ever do analysis of their expected value with the MB2 offers?

For example, take the 2.20 at Lingfield. Using exchange odds, the favourite (Believe It) is around 2.3 to win and 1.6 to finish in the top two. This implies that the probability Believe It finishes in second is roughly 19.8%. From here we know that, if we extract 80% of the free bet, our expected value of the offer is 0.198*0.80*25 – Qualifying Loss. In other words, the offer is profitable if and only if our qualifying loss is less than £3.96. If you take the second favourite (Little Indian), the odds are around 5.3 to win and 2.4 to finish in the top two. This implies that the probability Little Indian finishes second is roughly 22.8%. This would be profitable if our qualifying loss is less than £4.56.

It almost feels like the MB2 offers aren’t worthwhile during the week… What’s our expected upside? If we manage to get the second favourite in the 2.20 with zero qualifying loss (very difficult) our expected gain is £4.56. Needless to say, the second race at 3.30 is much worse.

I generally would advise against these unless you are behind the favourite and and about 10% (so £2.50) qualifying loss.

I’m very particular about calculating expected value and probability on the Money back 2nd to SP offers – but generally on MBS you won’t go far wrong if you keep your losses to a couple of pound and keep your horses to 3/1 and shorter.

Mark,where do you find the odds to finish in top 2 ?

On the exchange – “2 Places”.

I wouldn’t be surprised if our Little Indian finishes 1st instead ;)