World Cup Predictions
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Just for fun I’m going to go for Peru. They seem to be under rated. Based on their recent results they could be a dark horse.
I’m picking them to reach 1/4 final, which can be backed at 9/1 at bet365 and will hill. This is laying at 8.6 on exchange so clear value.
I also want to get something on Senegal. I think they are under estimated. Although I can’t find a value bet on them in comparison to the exchange price. And I’m not cocky enough yet to think I’m better than the exchange, but I think they will surprise.
Anyone got any tips or fancies? Who are you shouting for? Who is your dark horse?
+0June 7, 2018 at 3:22 pm
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Iran at 2000/1 with Sky is a good bet based on exchange prices (850.0)..
Denmark are 7.0 to reach the quarters with Sportingbet, laying at 5.7..
Your boys Senegal are 8.0 with Betfred to reach the quarters, laying at 7.4..
I’d probably go for Uruguay as a punt as their strikers are good and Godin is decent. I can’t find any value bets on them though.
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Tunisia to reach the semis – 151.0 with Betfair SB, laying at 85.0..
+0Like Uruguay too, i’ve backed them each way at 30/1. Both Atletico Madrid centre backs which is a very good partnership. Plus Cavani and Suarez obviously gives them the goal threat.
Backed Serbia 200/1 ew too.Not had a proper look yet but will be looking at some outsiders each way for top scorer. Paddys going 6 places. 4 or even 3 goals could grab a place. So should be some decent value on some rags.
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Tunisia have to go through probably Brazil or Germany to go to semi!
I saw Senegal to make 1/4 on betfred but they don’t let me bet.
I like the ew bets on Uruguay and Serbia … okay chance with Brazil and Germany on the other side, but it’s all the same Spain France etc will cause a problem.
+0Portugal. @ 29.0
+0Still looking for a Senegal bet? 5/1 to win their group at Hills. Trading half a point lower on the exchange.
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Good one MB, I’m on it!
+0Yeah had a little bit too. Seems alright for a group that looks fairly open.
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If you think they can reach the semi’s FOG, Peru are 34.0 at Hills, quite a bit of money backed at 25.0 this morning on the Betfair exchange..
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It’s a bit of a random one. Morocco elimination at 1/4 final on bet365 is 25/1, now it’s 12/1 on paddy and 16/1 on hills. So 25/1 is pretty big. Trying to calculate the true odds based on betfair markets – to reach 1/4 and to reach semi. I’m making the fair/true odds should be about 17/1.
Seems value. If they can squeeze out of their group ahead of Portugal and somehow avoid Uruguay then they could find themselves in a 1/4 easy enough and at that stage France or Argentina would step in and put an end to them.
I make Belgium at 3.25 value too for elimination in 1/4’s.
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Maybe Mexico at 2/1 to be eliminated in Round of 16.
They are favourite to qualify from Germany’s group ahead of Sweden and S Korea. They likely have Brazil in the round of 16.
The numbers seem to make the true odds just under 3.0. Logically and mathematically it’s a good bet!
+0I think that Morocco is a good one.
Back the 26.0 for quarters elimination. Lay the 13.0 for stake back to make quarters.
I think that would effectively would leave you on them at 2.0 to lose that tie if they made it. Which would obviously be a great price.
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Peru not going to do it for me. Performed above expectation I think but ultimately not good enough in front of goal.
+0I have France @ 7.5. Drifted to 10.0. But now in to 5.5. So a nice little arb. Or i suppose i could let it run.
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