Yet another accy question…..

Morning all. I’ve just had my 3rd accy on the trot go wrong so think I’ll abandon them. I’ve been gubbed mid accy, lost mobile reception and then couldn’t lay a leg which then lost, and now I’ve had a odds drift so will lose money no matter what.

Anyway, I just wanted to make sure I’ve got these right in my head. The value of the accy is in the refund right?

So if the stake/refund is £25 you are aiming to pick tight odds, cover all loses, and either win your stake back if a leg loses (risk free method, not guarenteed profit method) or underlay the final leg factoring in the free bet which may or may not come your way?

I’ve seen people on here talk about big profits from these but I don’t see how. If you are covering your bookie stakes on the exchange you will generally be covering these at a small loss right, due to higher odds on the exchange?

Finally, I don’t understand the logic of finishing a sequential accy with a high odds leg. I saw Mark Corrigan say that this is because it gives you a free bet at higher odds. However, surely you still need to claw back all your losing lay stakes, assuming they’ve all lost up to that point?

Another ramble from me! Hope it makes sense….

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beaser
8

May 1, 2016 at 8:36 am

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dingodollar 8 May 1, 2016 at 10:04 am

Why don’t u just put a high odds one first,lay it,it loses ‘hopefully’ then you get a free shot at a free bet?

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Dave_Jones 10 May 1, 2016 at 10:05 am

Beaser as I mentioned in a previous thread I don’t lay every leg just the last one provided all the previous ones have won, so I am not the best person to give you some tips on laying all legs.

One thing that I would recommend you do however is to use whichever spread sheet you have downloaded and play around with the numbers and see how small changes in the odds can affect your returns.

There is a trade off to be made, you will find that by using higher odds for the final leg this increases your EV but obviously brings down how often you win at the bookies, this is why I lay off the final leg using the risk free method.

If you are still interested in accas then perhaps paper trade them for a few weeks (ie don’t use real money) or use very small stakes. The thing is just doing a hand full of access doesn’t really give one any meaning full stats.

I made money on my first 9 accas but knew enough about maths to realise that this would not last and that eventually things would even themselves out.

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beaser 8 May 1, 2016 at 10:39 am

Thanks for the comments. I think everyone has areas that may interest them more than others. For me I think the hassle of systematic laying and risk of odds changes is a turn off. For the time being ill stick to offers and arbs…

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MbPunter 24 May 1, 2016 at 10:54 am

Yes the value is in the refund. So you are factoring that refund in from the start. Once you hit a loser, you continue to lay using the free bet profit you will receive.

Reason for finishing with big odds IF your previous legs have been massive odds on is because it increases likelihood of just one wrong leg.

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mike j 13 May 1, 2016 at 11:16 am

Biggest profits I have had are from coral with their super acca insurance. On a 9 fold you can have up to 2 loosing legs for a refund. Pick the shortest odds you can find then start laying the legs off one by one after you have lost a game

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