Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Chris, out of interest, what stakes are you doing on these? £50 EW?
Also, are you under laying the place much later on, hoping they have dropped in price on the place?
From what you posted today, I seem to be finding same picks as you, but I tend to take the price there and then…probably losing a lot of value doing so?
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Stake depends on price and what the bookie allows me to put on. £50 ew is my average stake but at the Aintree festival back and lay odds were so good and there were loads of arbs so I was getting £100 ew on most of what I did. Betfred dont usually allow me more than £30 ew depending on odds.
Yeah I back and lay the win part as soon as I can, that has been easy at the festival. The place lay I wait until 5 minutes before the race. Only one horse ended up not being an arb on the place.
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i found the odds pretty good this fest as well, and the liquidity was there on smarkets for a change. generally i lay the win at the same time-ish, i tend to give it half hour just to see if they go up or down a click. There are times i will ride it out though if it looks like a horse starts getting loads of money coming in as with No Comment yesterday, backed at 11 and it came into 8.8 (win part). It tends to be more luck than judgement when that happens (for me) being at the screen to notice it.
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Baklion place lay was weird yesterday. Win odds were improving but 5tbp odds sticking at 5.2. About to let it ride, but a few seonds before false start they moved to 3.8 so I banged the lay on. Bugger!
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I used to back the win straight away and watch the odds come in. So have been getting later and later as good arbs seem to get better odds later. Especially with 5/8/16’s. If you’ve got a good wedge of profit behind you then let it ride, or in-race.
Aintree 15.40 perfect example.
+0Ouch Sleepless I feel your pain, blame the horse that broke the line!
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Don’t feel too bad Steve. I always “forgetthecommission” underlay.
Had a great day.
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2.05 Tramore
Emmas Dilemma 19/17 at William Hill
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Poor liquidity so not a great place arb here, took 4.6/4
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Should have waited a bit longer 🙁
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Nice little bit of profit though
+0Thanks for your reply Chris, I’ve been collecting as much info on the markets as possible (recording data on every bet) to try and understand what will come in and what will drift.
So many factors come in to play it is really interesting…with smarkets, I find the place price comes in right before the off and can be very stubborn to move until 2-3 minutes before the race is to start, I haven’t had the courage to wait that long before placing my lays but collecting data every race.
+0I’m always on the lookout for opportunities to make money once all my good bookie accounts have been restricted or closed. So has anyone looked at backing on just the place market at the exchange, on what is likely to be a good candidate for EW arbing. Then if the price comes in, on the place market, which it has a good chance of doing, then laying our selection just prior to the off.
If the price does not seem to be coming in or even start to drift, we can lay for a small loss, once again prior to the off, in order to avoid the risk of trading in play, which can be a bit of a lottery, especially in a jumps race.
This would appear on the surface to be likely profitable strategy, but I haven’t really studied it in any detail. What do the rest of you think, and are there any major pit falls I have not thought about?
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3.40 Kelso
Berkshire Downs 17 at Betvictor and Sky
+0Down to 15’s now on BetVictor, would you say it’s still worth jumping on? Want to make use of my gubbed victor account.
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