Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Looking at the Bet Alchemist stats, I still think we’re making more doing our thing here. Realistically most are able to get £25 stakes rather than £50 and Bet Alchemist appears to have made a profit of £6.75k minus about £600 in subscription fees over two years whereas I like to think we make that here in less than a year easy, hence I am not sure its great value for money. Ok so we spend more time during the week finding our bets and they dont always come in but we’re not paying a monthly subscription to do so.
+0The way these guys make their money is from subscriptions and backing and laying their tips on the exchange when the price comes down.
They also price their tips at the highest odds available across all the bookies (which on an ungubbed accounts you would be lucky to get a couple of quid EW).
Try sticking £25 EW on a couple of big price winners at early prices and see how long your account lasts.
I recently signed up to a tipping service (£1 for a months trial) with a guy that claims to get inside info. The guy basically picks 3 or 4 favs every day and maybe one around 6.0. The prices he claims in his email are rarely available so I suspect that is where the “profit” is.
+0That was what I was thinking really. He’s charging for ‘eaxh way value’. Reading this ‘3 picks of the year so far’ I don’t think I’m special in saying i knew 2 of those horses were value at those prices from what I recall seeing.
He probably limits his returns by being more concerned on a realistic chance of winning, whereas the approach we mostly discuss ignores that and hammers the market inefficiency on placeYour numbers sound right Chris, subject to stakes. There’s enough bookies out there where a year of £25 average stakes should be realistic, and with a reasonable amount of time the rest stacks up. I’m probably below it, you’re probably above it but devoting a bit time gets you there
Plus on staking you’re going to surely get hit following him for each way value+0
Its also recommended that for £25 stakes, you have a £2000 bank built up to cover bad runs. I would never, ever consider losing £2000 doing this especially if I was also paying £25 a month for the pleasure of doing so.
I had a look at the picks from last year and they all look familiar meaning we probably had them here for free, an example of that is Vincente in the Scottish Grand National.
As you all know, I stay well away from Irish racing but someone here should run comparisons between what they make and the what Bet Alchemist does.
+0They will always have a better ROI than us seen as they’re selective and always getting best price.
But with a higher volume approach you can make £3k a year betting to far lesser stakes than £25ew.+0Good idea, if anyone wants to stick up any ew tips and price pre race on this thread. I’m happy to go through them all monthly to work out the profit/loss to say unlaid £10 ew stakes..
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The 415 at Meydan might be interesting
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13.35 southwell, 2 places but value on 2nd fav
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cheers good shout
+0Anyone do 188Bet enhanced place odds?
They go 2 races a day 1/4 instead of 1/5
Today is Southwell 13:05 and 15:55
+0Thought we were going to get a nice BOG at Southwell on Samovar….down to 1.3 in running.
Extra place money though as it went off at 4.0
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Yeah it looked promising for a while. Extra place BOG is scraps, but I’ll take it.
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Value now in the 14:55 but heavy ground with 8 runners… Scary.
+0Apart from Mighty Thunder at 9/10.5 I cant see much?
+0Drums of war 14/1 at 365 if anyone can get on..
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