Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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I did a few calculations a while back and underlaying had an approximately 2% higher ROI. If you EW arb regularly then its worth it.
On the other hand, if you have arbs on say, 4 or 5 runners (or more) its obviously favourable to lock-in profit
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The difference for me is the more you lay the more comm you pay in the long run. I lay as little as I am comfortable. I will often let the bets run unlayed if I am restricted to small stakes, or small bets relative to my bank. Otherwise underlay to break even. And yes I also enjoy cheering on the races.
I’ve quietened down lately and I agree with Mr M. When you are not on a lot of horse every day/every week then the gap between big wins can be too big, or variance can become agonisingly obvious. So on certain bets, certain times I will calculate the lay to win a small amount for a loss (maybe even just a €1) , and still get the big win for a win/place. That way at least the balance is ticking up a little all the time even if I’m not getting the luck. It is frustrating to watch your balance stagnate for too long.
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Scabbadab. 100 ew is 200 on the line and you didn’t lay it off straight away? You waited to see if the lay would drop from 5.0 to 3.5. What if it drifted?
I like a gamble myself on a value bet. But I’m not rich enough to be as casual as that with a 100 ew stake.
Glad it worked out though for you.
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according to my notes more 2nd favs come in these type of races. also at the time i got on the win was already at very simalar price -with a big arb on the place. it it had started to druft out more than 1/2 pt i would have laid off knowing i was still on for some profit. also it helped that timeform had tipped it to win ahead of the odds on fav- which should encourage! more money to come o it than usual. thus bad e/w-profit at time of bet-tipped up = lump on as much as you can(100 ew was max betfred let me have)
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arb available in the 340 utox. game on 6-4 (laying around 2.3)
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thats at betfred btw- cant believe sjames let me have a ton at 13/8(ill miss them when the gub fianally comes!)
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Well ive got 22 of 24 hours covered for 5th place and a few for 6th, lets see
Remiluc, Nietzche and zalvados placing would be best
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balls! only backed 3 in that and got the 1-2-4!
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Good news for you Enigma… I had Remiluc but only 4 places.
High Bridge came in massively in the betting, then did nothing in the race..+0
Good enough for me. Had two max stakes on Kalashnikov at 365, first at 13.0 and got another max stake when he shortened to 12.0.
Had all the other places too except Remulic.
All small max unlayed.
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consaltion! Game on does the buis in the 340
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Cracking for me. Had 5 of the 6 places, £400+ up
+0Ended up 1 or 2 quid down. Eggs in too few baskets I guess. One small arb on an extra place covered the loss on a bet i didn’t spot an odds drop
Still maintain underlay even if I’m under £10 profit on the day but would made closer to £50 on guaranteeing :-)
+0Backed 7 in the 15:35 with underlaid places. 4 placed!
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Couple of races at Ayr that will possibly present good arbs on two places.
Those of you who like an Irish 16+ runner handicap on a Sunday can get stuck in to the 4.20 at Punchestown.
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