Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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I, myself am probably taking a breather today (that means looking for arbs but not all day haha) and refocus my energies on bad each ways on gubbed accounts tomorrow. Enigma’s results last week on gubbed accounts were the kick up the arse I needed!
+0If you have access to a 365 Magnetic North @19 for the 1/4 4p is good, laying at 19.5
+0Deej it is worth noting that my results that day were my 5th highest profits in a day in the 4 years i have been matched betting / EW arbing
I’ll add that I make far more money on my gubbed accounts than when they were ungubbed. Bet365 for example, I used to “preserve” the account by placing only 1 or 2 value bets per race or offer. Now I just spam max bet on every single race which is far more profitable
You just need enough liquidity to check value. If its an ITV live race then there is normally liquidity 24hrs before the race. Basically you want to check early and often, thats how you will maximise value. And keep an eye out for whenever a price change occurs as you can normally get more money on, especially at 11am when bet365’s price promise kicks in
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Enigma I know you asked for some numbers so here’s my Saturday betting:
Total number of EW back bets: 14
Avg bet size: £30
Highest bet size: £40
Biggest individual win: £106
Biggest individual lose: : -£9.42
Total bookies used: 4
Total profit: £195.25Lay the win immediately, lay place closer to the race, if it’s drifted badly I have gone onto the 4tbp or 5tbp. Didn’t Saturday.
3 of those account are ‘healthy’ one being B365, Sky being the ‘gubbed’ account however that’s the account I placed the £40 EW bet with.
I’m actively hunting the Extra place and hit that twice on Saturday
I have used the each way tab on Betfair when Trying to get on multiple horses just before the off. It’s a lot easier and quicker and I often find win arbs, obviously most bookies offer 1/5 odd rather than 1/4 odds but i underlay the difference. It’s minimal losses.+1Three nice ones tomorrow, but the dread dead 8 runners.
+0Nice work Tony, yourself and Enigma show two different strategies with great results.
Can only see the 12.45 now Bazza, doubt that will hold at 8r.
Scabba – Vampish running again today in the 4.45 at Beverley 😀
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1245 beverly- off radar now..just dropped to 7r
+0Had a few days off after Ascot and a busy start to the week at work. Looks like another quiet day today, but there are a few EPRs at Windsor this evening if anyone is around. 7.25 & 8:55 look to be on the cut off for 4 places, so might be a bit risky.
7:55 looks decent – 14R Fav is at 2.2-2.6. 4 places is with Sky, Lads, Hills, BV, Coral, Betfred & Betway.
Just taken Platinum Prince in that one with Lads at 15 (boosted to 16) /16 for no win loss. Place is currently 4 / 3.3.
8:25 is currently 12R. Same bookies as above going 4 places.
+0Platinum Prince down to mid 8.5 ish on the exchange. Nice place arb of 4/2.4 in the end.
+0Morning Chaps. 12:45 at Haydocks looks a decent EPR – 13R Fav around evens to 2.25.
Just got on Singing Sheriff @ 8/8.4 with Hils (8.59 boosted)
War Brigade at 15/16.5 (16 boosted with Lad) – Exchange lay has now drifted a bit. On another too, but price no longer available
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Hello all
Had a few minutes of spare time this morning and still had that ‘debate’ running around in my head about what is better in a random 16+ handicap..(a) 1/4 4 places or (b) 1/5 odds 5 places
Heres a very simple breakdown…Using $10 each way as stakes
16 runner (HCAP) 1/4 4 places
All horses are amazingly all of equal ability/weights and all quoted at that true reflected price of 15/1- meaning you will break even at win odds in the long run. Because they will win on average 1/16 races- also they will fill out all other posistions in the race 1/16 times..so will hit a 2nd/3rd and 4th place 1/16 times each. Also will hit the other 12 posistions(losing bets) in race 1/16 times.
16 x $20 in bets= $320
1x 1st place + 150 + 37.50 for place = + $187.50
1X 2nd/3rd and 4th = 3x + 27.50 = +$82.50
12 x $20 lost = -$240Total bets 16 x $20 ($320) return ($350) + $30
Same scenerio for 1/5 odds 5 places
1 x 1st place = + 150 + 30 place = + $180
1 x 2nd/3rd/4th and 5th= 4x + $20 = + $80
11 x $20 lost = -$220Total bets 16 x $20 ($320) return ($360) + $40
Conclusion..
In an equal chance 16 runner race the 1/5 odds 5 places is slightly better than 1/4 odds 4 places when odds on horse are the same. With 1/4- 4TP yielding just under +10% and 1/5- 5TP the better return at +12.5%.
Altough its always been against the grain on here this is what I always thought- never thought there was much in it either way. Pretty much goes back to take the best price and accept the terms when ever one sees an overall each way arb. But if one was only able to place 1 bet and was was faced with same 15/1 choice in this example race-then siding with the 1/5 5TP is the preffered choice according to this simplified ‘study’
As I’ve also said before, different scenerios ie shorter fav/lots of big price horses/more runners will obviously effect the dynamics of the choices. But perhaps 1/5 5TP will always edge out 1/4 4TP in value- I dont know- Would take a lot of time and effort to try and dissect all the many variables.
Am happy with this basic breakdowns result and will always go with best price/whatever terms if I can find an overall each way arb in these type of races factoring in possible things like NRs forcing changes to terms. Races near the cut off would be another dynamic- ie is it better to be on 1/5 5TP when the race is close to the 16r Minimum- because if it goes below 16 you will then be on 1/5 4 places rather than the opposite 1/4 3 places.
My advice (and has pretty much always been) is side with the 1/5 5TP on most occasions.+0Interesting stuff Scabba.
Just taken another in the 12:45 Haydock – Fleeting Visit 34/34 with Coral for 4 places. Also available at Lads (would be good with a boost) or Boyles. Decent place arb on 4TP at 7.6/5
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You keep tipping up solid value spots- that go on to shoten in price MRM !(FLLETING/SHERRIFF/PLATNIUM-not so much WAR BRIGADE- But overall extra arb values by off time) and they continue to perform pretty poorly in the races- which o fcourse dosnt really matter. An overlayers dream! Will be back in full action next week with re opening of betting shops-so hopefully you can continue this value scalping/crystal ball tipping fantastic run your on- because I will be boshing on them, and of course my own spots., a lot heavier than the more limited online stakes.
Had great value tips on my thread today- but didnt manage to get high stakes on them- and didnt do any overlaying. Sadly apart from a nice EPR 4th WELL FUNDED 14-1- they didnt hit the big arb finishing spots often enough. One 8/1 shot went off 5/2- also 33-1 into 14s- 40-1 into 22s= 14-1 into 9’s.
Im not posting many tips/spots on here now (too busy really) getting posts up on SCABS NAPS though- so check in there if you see a post come up and your not focussed on the races yourself.
Keep up the good profits/tipping!+0Morning chaps, looks like another quiet day.
14.00 Tipperary has potential EPR, taken a bit on Song Of Namibia @16 for the extra place. With that trainer/jockey combo it’s got a good chance of coming in.
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Morning Andy. That 200 was looking very promising (even though it was an irish race!) but sadly most of the value dropped out of it 10 minutes ago with 3 nrs bringing it down to 15R 1/5 odds 4 place EPR. Still should be an ok EPR value race with a tight win price. Its looking a long way to TIPerARBY atm
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