Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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First one of the day – Loch Ness Monster at 21 with Bet365 in the 7:30. Laying at 20 at the exchange. price is 12-15 at other bookies!
Only one previous race to speak off that doesn’t really inspire confidence but I’ve taken purely on the price offered by 365 compared to other bookies.
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Nice one Mikey/MRM..Cheers
+0There are also a few that stand out in the Kilbeggan race at the moment.
I find these Irish races quite tricky as the exchange markets are often short of money and therefore most of the action seems to be around the shorter priced horses. Last week there was one I had backed at 12.0 and I thought was bound to drop (the other two runners were a short price) but instead it drifted on Betfair and I had to take a small loss as the bookies prices actually dropped!! The SP was 9.0 but Betfair had it at 17.0 at the start time. However there was a reasonable place arb to offset some of the loss.
+0Do people not try the Irish 16 runners anymore , I do feel it’s gone difficult myself , that was my bread and butter. ?! It’s last minutes to get anything on to get near on the win exchange ,but used to be amazing. Cork 4.15, 4.50 and 5.25 all available. Just noticed nobody mentions 16 runners +
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Aye the Irish stuff has been harder than usual since the lockdown etc…The markets were normally pretty low liquidity early doors but now there is even less in them and id say the bookies have tightened up a fair bit and react even quicker to even a few crumbs coming in for something in them…The 16+ can still be ok Frank..but normally have to be focused on them around 20 minutes before race time to catch any market moves/horses enetering arb/free shots value…Ive not had a great record in the Irish stuff (compared to my scalps in UK value races) over the years…And am lucky atm to have a mate- Ive named as The Dapper Napper- passing on some insights/whispers to me recently- which has upped my Irish value/scalping big time…Also I read up a lot more on form/watch races now..and wont dive in when any old horse sneaks a few crumbs of liquidity into value range…
Just got work at them a bit harder now at the low quality Irish stuff than pre lockdown…+1
Anyway great to have u guys Llew Goch/Frank Man/Mikey87 etc added into the old arb squad-chipping in regular with spots/insights…Nice one and good luck today!
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On a positive I think things in general are perking up a bit…theres more punters in the bookies now than the 1st few weeks after lock out stopped (were graveyards first few weeks back in Ireland) and subsequently theres overall more cash in the markets- which is important for arb scalping/getting better prices/catching moves etc- was way to easy first few weeks back for bookies to spot any small moves in the market and also they were much tighter with their prices as were in fear of missing any moves so were making sure they were way short on nearly everything…getting better now..Have been able to catch bad Each way prices a lot easier recently than the 1st month back- when only firms like bet 365 seemed to be happy to sit on fair/good prices and not be cutting every few seconds!
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Im not napping this on my thread because form is so bad on it…
450 Cork- Woods 6-1 (365) is small value atm- 17r 1/4 4 places
Can lay the win off for levels more or less- should have tidy place arb with no big drift+0Enemy coast ahead 4.30 uttoxeter. Maybe worth backing on the exchange now at 2.4 , laying nearer time , got a feeling this is only going to drop On the lay like one of Scabba the other day. The form on this horse is tremendous at both 1 and 2 mile. !! Obviously more you get on the better!
+0Agreed re Irish races. Liquidity tends to come in late and you can see some big moves. I’m more cautious with Irish races than English, but I still like to get on a price early when I can. I will always lay the win at the time I make the bet to cover the horse drifting. And I then I check in often on my selections to see if the price drifts.
Similar to my strategy to my selection on Silver Nemo at Wolves yesterday. Took 21 and layed at 23 for small loss of about £2. As others bookies had cut prices to 15-17. That gave me odds of 5 on the place. Could have layed there and then for around 4 but was hoping it would come down. It didn’t. In fact it drifted out massively close to the start, but I layed the place at 5 for no loss. Overall loss of £2 – not much risk for a potentially decent/huge arb position.
They don’t always have to work for me. I end up choosing a few of these that don’t come off but when they I end up in really good arb positions and make consistent returns.
I’m probably in similar position on Loch Ness Monster in the Uttoxeter 7:30 as the bookie price is drifting. Still not much liquidity in the market yet
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Great shout Frank…Liking the tactics there..Form there on that one top notch..Will have a dabble on it myself..Thinking outside the normal eway value races box…great stuff..cheers
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Also great tactics/thinking there MRM- This thread has gone from a ghostown a few months back..To an Arb/Value hunting degree level thread…
Some P.H.D’S/B.As (Batchelor of Arbs) awards on the horizons at this rate+0
For any newbies wishing to gain a Batchelor Of Arbs degree…a six month to one year course is an the pipes and will commence at Harbvard University next year…
+0Batchelor of Arbs – brilliant!
Bit off topic but I’m going to award myself an MBE (matched betting expert) for extracting £120 out of my £50 Bet 365 in-play offer on the City v R Madrid game last night
Sounds like you are doing well in your golf selections Scabba, I’ve jumped on your Rory Mcllroy tip. Haven’t got involved in much else on the golf front – trying not to use up all my exchange
+0I agree with Mr M and lay off the win as soon as I can generally, especially in some Bad EW races where the outsiders may well drift a lot on the Betfair win market.
Last week I placed my back and lay bet at almost the same time. There was no price movement with the bookies but the exchange drifted so I cashed out my back bet with the bookies which returned my original stake, and then also closed out my lay bet for quite a nice profit on the exchange.
More than one way to skin a cat!!
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