Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Morning all, great shouts.
Crofty..My mate TDN does have some fancys at the Curragh but atm only 1 of em in a eway value race- price not in range yet…will post up if the markets line up better. Great shout on EVoice…and Wisermiser shouts
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That 445 Tramore had hopes Mikey of a 3 place bad eway or at least a 2 place! BEW…has been wiped out of the reckoning now with 4! nrs…down to 4…
EPR Radar on 805 Chepstow..2.9 fav 13 r
+0None runner in the 2.00 Curragh taking it into 8r danger zone and rule 4 territory
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Yep- Cheers Andy…On Eastern Voice there myself at 8-1…The 2 place lay..Chase the 3rd pay out move is my play there…with pretty much even stevens if 1 dont start 1/4 odds etc…If Blue Cabaron 25-1 tip comes back to tight win lay..will do the same move on that…I rarely lay the 3 place markets anymore with cut off 8 rs going into stalls
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The old 2 place lays for levels/small losses chase the 3rd in 8 runner flat races-pays off in the 200 Curragh with Blue Cocharan 25/1 nabbing the double bubble with a 3rd- all 8 made it out of the stalls
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Esp useful play when on high odds shots- where the most likely place posistion it may scalp (based on chances/odds) is indeed the 3rd
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Nicely done! i took the guaranteed nick on Eastern Voice on the EW tab which turned out well, but was a bit hairy before the off!
+0Well done Scabba, underlayed eastern voice myself so no cigar
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Nice one Crofty! didnt get to watch the race..so missed any shenanigans..just done my usual and laid off wins/2 place markets as much as stakes would allow..solid on Eastern-some losses on BC- and chased the 3rd for very nice profits..Nice on those 2 as top 2 was likely to be 1 and prob 2 in the betting..paid off! Nearly always do this with just 8 r about to go in the stalls..have had my fingers burned too many times laying off nice 3 place arbs and then 1 doesn’t come out and the dreaded 3rd place rocks in..esp on high stakes this can be very painful…even had 2 monster arbs a while back in a 9 runner race- laid the big arbs off at monster prices early..and then 1 horse acted up and ran off and then another refused to go in the stalls..and one of my massive arbs hit 3rd! from the reduced 7 runners..From expecting over +£100 profit.I lost well over £300 on the nightmare situation..Now I won’t lay any 3 places on 9 runners until as late as poss- and will only lay 2 place markets late on 8 runners…If the odds have drifted badly will just accept the bad position,,lay the win as best as poss and let places ride..
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Cheers Andy!
+0CroftY how did you take a guaranteed? Just trying understand your tactic before the race. You had the horse at 9/1. The race had a good arb in the 3 rd place , small in the second place. Did you lay just the EW tab rather than the 2nd or 3rd tab ? How’s that deliver ? Thanks.
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Sounds like a risky move with the 8 runner factor…but not so risky if done a few seconds before they jump out of the stalls with a quick press..Im guessin Crofty overlaid Easten on the EWay tab..which I think was about 7.0 at the off..Perhaps if he had $50 each way at 15/2 and laid off about £57 eway before off at 7.0…Would have more or less locked in £14 or so..Leaving no profs if it won/placed…Something along those lines without breaking it down too deeply…
+1Yes mate pretty much as scabba described. overlay on the e/w tab ie back at 8.5 then drip feed the lays around 7.2, rather than laying the win and place separately. Actually keeps things simple more like a standard arb rather than an e/w arb if you get what i mean. I normally overlay to some extent as i like to get at least some ££ out of it.
My thinking was the chances of a horse not entering stalls and eastern finishing exactly 3rd was pretty unlikely, but as scabba says it can happen!!
+1On a more general thought but still bad ew related, is the effect of no punters at the racecourses at the moment, and how this impacts the markets/exchanges? I would think there are less favorites (the jolly) being smashed in near the off ? if so maybe something to consider when laying the win or predicting odds movement nearer the off.
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Interesting stuff Crofty
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