Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Was hoping for some value in the Arc on Sunday (15:05 Longchamp) but dont think there will be. Memories of last year where we had an outrageous bad EW.
+1WEll actually maybe there will be at 4 places paid. Mogul is currently 13/13.5 at a bunch of bookies for 4 places
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Cheers LG..Yeah looks a bit slim pickings tomorrow..esp on the big value 16= hcap front. See how it pans out.
That 455 ended up top value 4 places 1/5 with a few firms as it dipped right down to minimum 12r.
The Irish low quality meets 16+ hcaps seem to have totally random place terms- and I dont what the criteria is- one minute 1 is normal 1/4 odds 4 places with the usual mix of firms going 1/5 5- Then next meet they are all 1/4 3 places & 1/5 4 TP. I nearly always prefer the 1/5 odds 5TP to the 1/4 4 places- as I believe I broke down fairly clearly as to why they are better value with my mostly unread post/thread on the basic maths on each of the terms. But another reason to go 1/5 5TP is if race is on the cut off (16r) or very close- when the then often dip under the 16r comes -you are in a much better new posistion of now being on 1/5 odds 4TP rather than much worse value 1/4 odds 3 places.
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Another reason to reliase that 1/5 odds 5 places are nearly always better than same price on 1/4 odds 4tp is that when you see the firms who have the different terms in same 16+ race- The firms offering the 1/5 5tp are 90%+ always offering shorter prices- or at very best the same- than the firms paying 1/4 odds 4 places. They are not daft!
+1Cheers Scabb in 4.55. Hit the bonus/ jackpot ( looked like a duffer but came through from the back , must of still been eating mints ) 😂 Like wisemiswer said doing ok with bonus chasing however tried it on 8.15 Dundalk ( no luck). Seeing if overtime it plays out to be more profitable going for bonus every time unless a great big Arb and having decent amount on it which is hard with being gubbed! ( small stakes only )
Don’t get me wrong had some good wins with bonus chasing but lost a bit too ( not all rosey )+0
Yeah its swings and roundabouts Frank- maybe not be much in it long term on which option you go for ie chase the value extra place or lock in the 4/5 places arb- if in good shape. I feel (but cant prove it) that because I normally try and look for steady plodders at value prices in the EPRs- if possible -that they will hit more 4/5ths than top 2s etc so think the chase will pay at least a bit more long term. But for cutting out the often annoying long waits for the buses to come in and keeping a nice steady flow of energies/profs ticking in on them- then maybe the full place lock ins are better for keeping a nice focus. Horses for courses as they say!
I like and advise doing it my way myself. + its much easier when I do the BFSPs breakdowns on Twitter to scroll through betfair at the end of the day and see what the win/minimum place prices were (they dont leave prices for the extra places) as I often miss them during the heat of the battle
+1Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
Cheers for the Arc mention Enigma. I often miss spotting the big overseas meets early doors- Tomorrow (saturday) may offer some value stuff..400 9r bad ew- should offer some value with decent liquidity..an odds on Group 1 with 9r- time to get back in the action Sir!
And the 150 and mentioned 305 should be very tidy eprs on Sunday- with Sky going a bit dolally with a lot of stand out extra bonus places (better get in on them early/day b4 as you know what SLYBET are like on race days in their offer races- and most things 4 that matter!
Anyways at least 3 value/good liquid races to add to the weekend mix
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Morning all! Hopefully a decent day on the cards
Well my brain is still wishing to prove why 1/5 5 places is better than 1/4 4 places (the old conundrum that most old skoolers think is clearly 1/4 4 places the king)
Heres the simplest breakdown of an average set of criterias.
(1) 16R race
(2) All horses are equal and are quoted at their true price of 15/1.(a) 1/4 odds 4 places
Using 1/4 4 places back the field at £10 e/way. 16 x £20= £320
1 Winner + £150
4 placed bets 4x £37.50 (1/4 of 15/1) +£150
15 lost win bets and 12 lost place bets = -£270
Total staked £320
Return £350 + £30 (inc 5 x £10 stakes returned) + 9.4%(b) 1/5 odds 5 places
Using 1/5 odds 5 places back the field at £10 e/way. 16 x £20= £320
1 Winner + £150
5 Placed bets 5 x £30 (1/5 of 15/1) +£150
15 lost win bets and 11 lost place bets= -£260
Total staked £320
Return £360 +£40 (inc 6 x £10 stakes returned) +12.5%Add to the fact that when race is near the cut off of runners- the added improved ‘insurance’ of having the terms change to 1/5 odds 4 places instead of 1/4 odds 3 places if race drops below 16R (which is even better equation for 1/5 4tp v 1/4 3TP than this 5V4 breakdown)
Conclusive proof Id say- hopefully I dont have to read anyone going on about 1/4 odds 4 places being better long term than 1/5 5 places on average again!
+0Ascot OFF. Brilliant, thats 20 mins of bets voided
16:00 Longchamp indeed looks good. And will start getting bets on the French races tomorrow
+0Cheers Scabb for the insight on the bonus short /long term information . Like a sponge , I take it in👍🏻
Enigma do you always look for bets the night before ? Just with you saying about France tomorrow, You looking today for tomoz?
I know Scabb posted last Friday night and did well for the Saturday with super early naps.+0Frank for races as big as the Arc, Cheltenham, Grand National I look as soon as the bets stop being antepost. For other ITV races I start checking the morning before. For normal races its sometimes worth a check the night before but otherwise its just in the morning
Once there’s liquidity you can get some good early matches. And it takes about 30secs to check a race with oddschecker
+1So yea, start checking for tomorrow’s races at Longchamp
+1Cheers Enigma 👍🏻
+0What’s gone on with the all the O’Brien runners in the Arc going NRs??
+0Chaos in the Arc with these NRs a few bookies still going 4p for 11rs, hopefully no more but it’s in the danger zone. A few bets I’ve got on now only 3p.
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