Bad EW Races NO CHAT
-
Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
-
-
New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
And I hit 4th but, nothing else…… An overall loss!.
It’s interesting that 365 do that regularly (/not just as a one off)..
I placed one ew bet when the norm was still three places and that remained as a three place bet..
+0Interesting
Working theory:
1. they only do it for races with a separate “+1 place” tab
2. They make the change when they go to industry prices, to balance out the value
+0Yeah if you want 4 places earlier in the day, you have to take poorer odds on that tab.
Yeah even though they are waiting for industry prices because they aren’t bad ew races. Should still be able to pick up some close matches on the win plus good value on the place.
+0
Yep, found some reasonable value punts in the 8.20 and 9.20..
This is good to know, doubt there’s much in it but anyway…
Enigma – your working theory sounds pretty good to me (it seems to be about 5 minutes before the off in the races I’ve seen).
Another 4th in the 9.20, I’m pillaging value!
+0Belatedly read the days events, to play devils advoctate matchedem has A point but as usual he’s made it like a bull in a China shop.
That 33-1 horse really was more of a trade than an arb when I looked shortly after it was posted. Maybe some liquidity had gone but the win was 100 and the place 12.sonething. But if you took the best oddschecker prices at that point in time there wasn’t really any implied place value as there were a fair few mid priced horses.
But if you look beyond those best prices and have experience of the markets- as Chris has then you can tell where the arb is likely to appear. Its not easy, but hes giving the answer. Even with something like that though it’s not like he’s a dodgy tipster you need to report, the logic is sound and the beauty of getting on these right priced horses is that even if they drift you rarely take too much of a hit on the place part but can easily make a fair bit when it comes in
+0
Ok fair enough thanks fog and betman for explaining it well…and less thanks to Chris for swearing and laying into me and generally being a nasty. I was trying to make what I see and others see as a valid point
Glad u did well today it’s much nicer on here when u do…and everyone else did too. Mbpunter I didn’t get chance to but seems others did…a new idea maybe
Doggie snacks on starburst slots today and tomorrow on Billy hill by the way I’ll post separately
+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
I think this is where the low liquidity is the issue. It doesn’t take much at all to push the market out to what could be a ‘wrong’ price. Say someone sees a horse at 51/50 and bets accordingly. Once they’ve laid that 50.0 the next price looking to back could be 80.0. That could then look a poor selection to some..
+0
We do not “punt”, We underlay by 100%.
+0
Can’t see much of interest today.
The 19.15 at Chelmsford could be ok if there are a couple of non-runners..
As a commission saver, Sky are 2.1 on the favourite atm, which is laying (little liquidity) for under 2.+0
Yep nothing really going on today, we were spoiled rotten yesterday so not really surprised. There are a couple of races at Thurles that may become interesting if a couple of non runners, particularly the 4.30. However, as you know I tend not to get involved with Irish racing so I’ll leave you guys to keep an eye on those.
Chelmsford looks good for 2 Clear and William Hill boost underlaying this evening.
+0Cheers guys hadn’t looked what meetings there were yet, would be nice if I can get on some eway value and my boost in the evening racing… especially if I can do all my activity after 6ish.
+0Thurles 4:00.
Chelmsford 5:45, 8:15.B365 extra place offerings.
+02 Clear at Chelmsford is a good sign that the flat season is nearly done….hopefully High5 will make a comeback (I suspect it will be down to 15% and no refund for 2nd though).
Jumps tend to be better for long odds on favs for bad EW races.
+0
Expecting High 5 to return this Saturday for Cheltenham meeting which officially heralds the start of jumps season but yeah, will be 15% bonus and no MBS.
+0
And the prediction was spot on
http://promotions.williamhill.com/en-gb/offer/high-five-2017-18
At least it will pay out more often than 2 Clear. No mention when it starts but yeah, I would put my money on it starting this Saturday at Cheltenham.
+0
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
