Bet stars – BOG Masters
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Back a player and lay each day as the price drifts?
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+0April 3, 2017 at 9:47 pm
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You could back him, lay half then look to lay the other half at the end of the days play
Like horses bog you’d be looking for some movement to give you the value+0
There are a few with tighter odds. I just like Dustin because I don’t really have anything on him and have most other top 10 covered across offers. Probably the most likely for odds to come crashing in too.
If I back now and lay half.
Then I make a profit if
1. He has a good round day 1 or 2 and his lay drops to about 7.0. Then the lay is cheap enough to lay off the other half without eating up all the profit from bookie bet. The more the lay shortens the bigger the arb, the bigger the profit.
2. He doesn’t hit form this time and drifts out to about 10.5 after round 1 or 2. That way I have bookie at 10.5 for full stake but already half layed at 9.2. So if I can lay the other half at about 11.5 then I’m about break even. The further he drifts, the bigger the bog, the bigger the profit.
Anything else I lose QL. That is if his lay hovers between about 7 and 11.5. It’s quite a big window – but surely by day 2 at least the result will be a lot more clearer and the odds will be much different.
I like it because there are two chances at end of either day. By the second day at least he will either be much shorter to lay or a much bigger bog price.
What if he is cut!?
+0Backed a few players and laid half.
They’ve all drifted out in price.
Player – Original Price – Current Price ( Lay)
McIroy 12 -> 19(26)
Garcia 19-> 34 (48)
Thomas 26 -> 34 (65)I could lay McIlroy for a profit today but I think the others will be a small loss, I think I leave them and hope for better rounds today.
Any of them get into contention now I should be looking at a decent arb.
Covered my losses by mug punting £25 on WH Hole in 1 at 17 boosted from 4 -> 4.5
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Dustin Johnson’s bookie odds have shortened (8.0 to 7.5) and lay odds have lengthened (9.2 to 9.4)!
Need something to happen today.
+0Yesterday Betstars were best price for almost every player (probably because their ew terms were tightest), now they are best price for almost no-one.
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If you are waiting to lay the rest, just be careful. Projected cut is +2 and all your guys are on +1…. so you might not get another BOG offer or a shot at a lower lay if they don’t improve.
+0Yeah… I realise it is a bit of a gamble now.
Hopefully one of them can have a run at it and I should be able to cover myself.
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The golf is just crazy unpredictable!
This Players and the Masters I thought I had enough eventualities covered and didn’t lay my extra place offers or 2nd place offers etc.
This one I might get a bit for Scott if he places and molineri too if he places top 5.
The guy on course to win I took screen shots on Friday he was 200/1 on the exchange. Almost none of the top 10 even placing except like I said maybe Scott.
Don’t mind having some punts with my profits and keep it modest. But this is crazy I’ll only get a fraction of a place back.
+0I ended up taking a small loss on this one… a couple of my picks came in enougth at times to cover my lossses but I decided to gamble on the big payout.
Maybe next time I will go with bigger stakes but lay a higher percentage initially.
If you do manage to get the winner I think it could be a bumper payout.
+0This is on offer again this week at AT&T Byron Nelson tournament.
DJ is 6.0/6.0 at the moment.
+0Thanks. Johnson now 5.5 but koepka 19/19.5.
That’s hopefully got plenty scope to move, hope there’s enough liquidity. Back in for this one, missed last weeks+0Schwartzel and Tway (with Eway arb) both free shots as well. Although pretty big odds so risky to not lay all now, and are they really likely to drift then get back into it
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