Fred/Tote – Liverpool v Chelsea – Either Team to win & BTTS

• (1) Either team to win and both teams to score is boosted to 3.5 at Fred and Tote.

  These kind of “either to win & btts” offers can be dutched, provided you can get the right odds on the other outcomes.

  The way I do this is to look to place two more BACK bets as follows:
  (2) BACK the ‘Draw/Yes’ (i.e. score draw) option in the Match Result & BTTS market on Betfair Exch (or another bookie if you can get sufficiently good odds)
  (3) BACK the ‘BTTS – No’ option in the BTTS market on Smarkets (or another bookie if you can get sufficiently good odds)

  It works just like any other dutch bet in that you can weight it in favour of your preferred/fancied outcome, or you can just guarantee the same profit regardless.

  I built my own calculator to quickly establish if there is any profit in these offers when they come up, which there is in this one if you bet as follows:

  Fred/Tote – £100 on (1) @3.5
  BetVictor/Betstars – £77.78 on (2) @4.5
  Smarkets – £162.04 on (3) at 2.18

  This gives an outlay of £339.81 and a guaranteed profit (after any commission if using an exchange) of £10.19

  Now clearly that is not megabucks, but it is effectively a 10% arb which I believe is considered a “good” return on any arb. Obviously it is also scalable and the potential profit figure can be manipulated by weighting in favour of a preferred/fancied outcome. Consider too that if you can get £100 on at both Fred and Tote then you are looking at twice the profit (maybe x4 if you have multi accounts)

  You can use the 3 way dutch calculator over at trickybet to test the maths and check how the profitability might change as the prices on (2) and (3) move during the day.

  Things to consider:
  – As Matt often points out, a stake like £77.78 will look fishy as hell to a bookie, so consider using round numbers if you are using a bookie for either (2) or (3). If you are using an exchange then weird stakes are fine.

  – You could look to LAY both teams to score instead of (3) if it is more profitable, but beware that the dutching calculator at trickybet will not work out the lay stake for you as it assumes all bets are in a dutch bet are BACK bets.

  – These offers seems to be unique to Fred and Tote. Although you often get them on “smaller” games then tend to be more exploitable on “bigger” games like the Liverpool v Chelsea game tonight due to increased liquidity across all markets.

  Sorry for such a long post, I am sure many of you already look at these offers and know how to take advantage, but I just thought that some might find this useful.

  +0

  

  Tony

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  January 31, 2017 at 12:51 pm