Grand National Thread

  • Seeyouatmidnight is 21/21. Could be worth NRNB or extra place since bookies look like 5 places on antepost and exchange is 4.

    Neither probably a whole lot of value but combined I think worth a little shot.

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Better Regal Encore 67.0/34.0.

    What am I missing? Too good to be true?

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Raz de Maree 67.0/32.0?!

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    MbPunter 24

    Not missing anything. Effectively 42/32 arb with free shot at 2nd!

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    MbPunter 24

    The 3 places ones seem to be perfect or very close matches for shots at 2nd and 3rd.

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Maxed out on a few there big prices so small stakes and not likely to win anything. But that was fun. I took some off the 2 place and a few also from 3 place.

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    matchedbetsjon 0

    if you take the 2 places ew bet from bet365, if your horse wins you win both bets on 365 and lose the ‘win’ part on the exchange.
    if it comes second you lose the win part but win the ew part on betf365 and win on the exchange
    and it it comes any other place you just win the exchange
    just making sure this is correct ?

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    MbPunter 24

    Yes. But don’t do a 67/32 arb in the calculator. Divide your return by your stake to give you effective odds for your calculations.

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    matchedbetsjon 0

    okay so if i did a 20 ew bet at 67 and exchange odds of 34
    my returns would be 1650/40 giving me effective odds of 41.25 ?
    and then put that in the calculator ?

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    MbPunter 24

    1690 return but yeah thats it. So stake £40 @42.25 lay 32. Gives you £12 guarantee and free shot at 2nd.

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    MbPunter 24

    Though i’d rather just lay to get stake back, then have a free shot at the win too.

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    matchedbetsjon 0

    ahh right cheers
    sorry just a quick one, why cant you put in the calcualtor normally and just lay the win part on the exchange ?
    for example 20 ew @67, lay the win part(39.43@34) giving a liability of 1301.19.

    if horse first: 1320(to win bet)-1301.19(to win lay)+330(ew part)=348.81
    if second : -20(to win bet)+38..64(to win on the exchange)+330(ew part)=348.64
    any other position: -20(to win bet) -20(ew bet) +38.64(win on exchange)=-1.36

    so risking 1.36 to win 348 if second or first ?
    cheers
    sorry if a stupid question

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    matchedbetsjon 0

    is that like you said, doing that is just pretty much doing a underlay isnt it ? but you’re (mbpunter) underlaying less so that you dont lose anything and ive under layed it more so im risking 1.36 ?

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    bbobb 24

    Any suggestions when your max stake is less than the £2?

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    MbPunter 24

    Yeah you’re good if only putting £20 in calculator as stake. I didn’t want a scenario where you were putting the whole £40 in calculator at 67 and leaving yourself exposed on the win.

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    matchedbetsjon 0

    yeah i was only putting in 20 as a stake, did that and then read about effective odds and got a bit worried that id made a mistake but cheers for the help

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