Horse Racing (12th Feb)
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Will Hill – ALL 7 races at Wolverhampton. (Money back 2nd)
Paddy power – Kempton – maybe value on the 13:35 (Money back 2nd to SP)
Bet365 – Kempton 3:50, Wolverhampton 7:15 (Free bet for 4/1+ Winners)
Good luck all!
+0February 11, 2016 at 7:05 pm
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Gone for Ballyhenry. £1 qualifying loss is okay, worth a go.
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Fog, it depends on liquidity and the market in general. Usually I wait until 10 minutes before the race but with Paddy Power, thats difficult as their odds are very poor compared to other bookies. It’s therefore easier to look the night before and try to pick a horse whose odds are likely to shorten by the time raceday comes.
For example, I backed Bishops Court last night fully expecting his back and lay odds to come down overnight/early morning which they did. With Ned Stark, I got tight back and lay around 9pm last night and with Whats the Scoop, I layed last night expecting his rubbish Paddy odds at the time (4.0) to lengthen and again they did. Its a bit risky but so is waiting until the race with Paddy.
I realise I have not answered your question well at all.
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I’m in on Ballyhenry, although I’ve laid too early and the odds just dropped! could have made a qualifying profit. This keeps happening to me!
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Thanks Chris. You answered it perfectly. Good luck on the race.
+0crap… this must have been the 4th winner I have backed in the last two days!
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Theres been nothing doing in these Paddy offers the last two weeks with the exception of one or two heavy favourites in a small field.
Its always a difficult one to score a free bet from as you’re relying on two outcomes in the same race but its not helped by unfancied favourites getting easily beaten lately.
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Paddy’s not going to be happy! Think a few would’ve gone for Ballyhenry
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The only reason I keep doing these is because we’re all getting gubbed by Paddy soon because of the Betfair merger, its a matter of when not if.
+0Exactly my thought Chris. I know I will get gubbed by PP sooner or later so I am smashing the hell out of it while I can.
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This is precisely the right approach with PP – stick it in their eye while you can lads (and lasses) ;)
@Chris – question about your ‘lay the night before’ strategy referred to above… how do you establish a lay stake if you are not sure how much the PP back odds will move up to? Sensible guess I’d presume, but just wondered if there was anything more to it?+0
Simple answer Tony is I dont know, sensible guess as you say. I like to study form and stats so that helps but a lot of it is speculative.
With What’s the Scoop, he was second favourite at the time to an odds on horse and was 5.0 at WH, Bet365 and even Sky so fully expected Paddy to lengthen their abysmal odds.
Not a good strategy I know but Paddy odds mean I have to try these kind of things.
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The 6.45 Wolverhampton really does look good for the William Hill offer. The favourite should win it based on form but the rest of the field is weak with the exception of Sandacres.
Really right back and lay odds on the favourite at present though which may swing it for a lot of you.
+0Oh So Fruity for 2:40. Please don’t end up winning again!
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That race sums up what its been like lately, any horse can take them. 18/1 ridiculous.
+0Yeah, I’ve had a terrible day on the horses.
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