Horse Racing (12th Feb)

Will Hill – ALL 7 races at Wolverhampton. (Money back 2nd)

Paddy power – Kempton – maybe value on the 13:35 (Money back 2nd to SP)

Bet365 – Kempton 3:50, Wolverhampton 7:15 (Free bet for 4/1+ Winners)

Good luck all!

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FoG_BLoG
61

February 11, 2016 at 7:05 pm

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Snoop 0 February 12, 2016 at 7:06 pm

Followed Ryan’s advice on about post 4 from last night and ignored all races apart from this one, thanks sandacres, thanks Ryan! 100% for today!

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Chris 24 February 12, 2016 at 7:10 pm

I followed my own advice and have £50 in free bets.

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RyanB 16 February 12, 2016 at 7:14 pm

Which you said yourself probably lost one due to all your qualifying losses anyway….but regardless id rather keep to channel 4 races really and keep my account open longer.

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Chris 24 February 12, 2016 at 7:16 pm

Well if I had only the one £25 free bet then yeah its true, my profit would roughly be £7 but the last win has bumped that up.

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FoG_BLoG 61 February 12, 2016 at 7:26 pm

I think that you can probably make a case on some horses to push the qualifying loss out… but its all eating into your profits and matched betters don’t like to gamble at all.

But if you look at Wolves 7.15 and the 2nd fav. His odds to place in the top 2 are 10/11 but he is not really that likely to win at 11/4 because there is a strong-ish favourite. You would definitely expect him to finish 2nd once in 5 based on those odds so a gambler looking for value wouldn’t mind paying slightly over £3 or even close to £4. But obviously get him as cheap as you can. And obviously for anything with long odds like 10/1 I would be looking for qualification cost of 50p!

Its a sliding scale – to balance probability of 2nd with cost – obviously you need some trusted method of calculating the probability of 2nd to be confident in taking big qualifying losses. But I think that’s wandering away from matched betting.

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Chris 24 February 12, 2016 at 7:32 pm

I’ve said it once and i’ll say it again.

When you’re making £500+ a month, taking an extra £3-4 qualifying now and again is not something I worry about.

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Chris 24 February 12, 2016 at 7:33 pm

And also gambling is fun, yes I am a matched better but I am also a gambler, it’s not a dirty word. I’m going to Fontwell Park next week and I sure as hell won’t be stood at the race course looking for tight back and lay odds on my phone.

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Tony 18 February 12, 2016 at 8:25 pm

I wish I had just been punting tonight!

6 races, 2 x 2nd places but 4 (yes, FOUR) fucking winners!?!!?! FML, totally expecting a Dear John email from Hills imminently :(

Well done to everyone else who scooped tonight ;)

Ryan and Chris… play nice, haha!

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LJH 2 February 12, 2016 at 8:30 pm

Not much luck here, only scored one 2nd place. What a shame, I was really hoping for 2 out of 7 races.
Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

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feltt1p 7 February 12, 2016 at 8:30 pm

Feel for you Tony, also had the last two as winners :( no underlay either

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Pickle 64 February 12, 2016 at 9:06 pm

Seeing as the bastards have banned me ive had no wins and no seconds this evening :(

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