Horse Racing (12th Feb)
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Will Hill – ALL 7 races at Wolverhampton. (Money back 2nd)
Paddy power – Kempton – maybe value on the 13:35 (Money back 2nd to SP)
Bet365 – Kempton 3:50, Wolverhampton 7:15 (Free bet for 4/1+ Winners)
Good luck all!
+0February 11, 2016 at 7:05 pm
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Just Ned Stark left for me in the 3.50. Would love it if he came second to the favourite by a head. The irony.
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Well I dont expect much from paddy’s 2nd to SP ones. Hopefully Will Hill will win a few free bets this evening.
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You hitting every race at Wolverhampton tonight then Fog?
+0There is never really much in those PP offers. WH 2nd place tonight should be where all the fun is
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Taking the night off Hills 2nd place offers due to recent gubbings.
There is always tomorrow ;)
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Chris – I passed on the 7:15 and 8:15. Have a horse in the rest.
I reckon it is hard to pick a 2nd place horse – favourites win, 2nd favourites win a bit and disappoint a bit. When I did a bit of analysis on SP odds there was no stand out way of picking a 2nd place.
However I noticed that anything over 3/1 really doesn’t have much chance of 2nd place – where as horses rated 3/1 and shorter by the industry had about 20% to 25% chance of placing 2nd. Of course depends on the makeup of the race, number of runners too. But as a general rule.
So I don’t touch any horse bigger than 3/1 as he is not likely to win me a free bet. I know it can be harder to get a matched bet on these shorter priced horses though.
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Sounds like a sensible strategy.
Think I’ll do exactly the same, skip the 7.15 and 8.15 and go for favourites in all the other races, possible exception of the 6.45.
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Whats the verdict on William Hills offer for tonight then?
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@FoG
I have just looked at my records and it seems I have won 29 second place refund bets on the horses (various sites) from 97 attempts.
Of those 29 free bets, 18 were won on horses with odds over 3/1 (4.0):
6 | 4.33 | 12 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 9 | 7.5 | 8 | 5.5 | 9 | 7 | 6.5 | 7 | 8 | 5.5 | 8 | 9Admittedly my sample size is likely *far* smaller than yours FoG, but curious that I have managed so many given you analysis.
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29 second place refunds is impressive. Over what period of time? Maybe you should post your selections for tonight Tony.
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Oct – 2
Nov – 25
Dec – 13
Jan – 43
Feb – 14I have no secret Chris, I obviously look for a horse that has a ‘chance’ of second and then let the odds decide a lot of the time. The other day (last entry on results above) I took a horse at 9.0 purely because it offered the lowest qualifying loss, even though it was one of about 7 that had a chance. Lucky I guess :)
Perhaps NOT knowing a lot about the horses can help sometimes?
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Interesting tony!
And well done. Do you have any other selection criteria – like number of horses ran?
I imagine by comparing to the market you are highlighting horses that are under rated by the main players in the industry and maybe hitting a few more second places than you should.
I don’t know if you can sustain a 29% hit rate though! Though hopefully for you, you can.
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What’s your average odds tony?
So to give a flavour of my stats.
I saw 425 horses at evens and of them 26% finished 2nd.
I had 3,396 at 3/1 and 19% of those finished 2nd
I had 4,644 at 4/1 and 17% finished 2nd.@9/1 out of 3,803 horses 11% finished 2nd.
But that’s just purely based off bookie SP making no allowance for good/bad value compared to the market.
If you know a bit about the market to spot value and if you know a little about horses beyond just their odds – then I’m sure you could improve your hit rate! But I am impressed with 29 from 97.
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Was betting on Kempton races today on WH thinking it was 2nd place refund! Haha I’m such a pleb, thought I had a nice £25 free bet on its way… qualifying profit of 19p and a loss of 35p so no harm done :D
Looks like I didnt miss out on anything on Paddy today then (I’m gubbed)
Anyone else fancy Zakatal for the 7.15 on b365? Keeping my eye on the odds to see if they get a little tighter
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I think my hit rate on 2nd place is definitely more than 1 in 5…maybe because I usually only do it on Channel 4 races and I only do races which have a smaller amount of runners and usually a few clear favourites, it also helps that I combine both WH & Ladbrokes as this doubles up the odds as you can cover 1st and 2nd fav. Doing this I have always made a nicer earner off Saturdays.
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