How I've made 1.5k in 4 nights. The US goldmine.

First of all I’d like to thank ant aka poker4life and his group of elite match bettors who revealed this great source of income to me.

What you’re gonna need:
1. A Paddy Power account (limits as big as possible) – bank – around 350 for a start
2. A SkyBet account for when you get restricted (odds are nothing close to PP)
3. A Betfair Exchange with as much as possible so you can get on as much horses as you can
4. Something to entertain you before liquidity comes because it happens during night time and waiting for the next eligible race to come up with an arb might bore you

Basically Paddy offers fixed prices on US racing which aren’t close to the Betfair reality (not all). They’re very slow to cut and before they do you’d be able to get a CRAZY arb. And by saying crazy let me give you some examples of what I’ve gotten in my journey.

26/6 (horse even went on to win after being cut to 6/1 afterwards)
3/1.5
17/11
4/1.98
6/4 <=== these are the most common examples
2/1.35
20/15
10/5.5
8/4.4
13/7.2

and more and more and more these are just examples from what I can remember, there are LOADS. I know it seems fiction if you’re only doing UK racing as you’ll never get that here. But as Paddy’s traders go to sleep early, you can get these and even better arbs. Few people have discovered how profitable it is and already benefited from that. I got heavily restricted yesterday and now I have to try get on with Sky which was a nightmare last night when they were nothing close to PP’s prices.

!!!!!!!!! You will get restricted and gubbed fast, probably have around 3 night before having your max. bet on a 2/1 horse at 10 quid. They do that on the next day after you’ve won a fortune so stay up the whole night I’d suggest. The bigger the stake, the better. BUT BEWARE – LIQUIDITY IS NOT ALWAYS THERE. You might want to queue until it comes. Another tip: Underlay the smaller odds like 3/1.5. Take guaranteed when you have a 20/10.5. Personally I get GTD 9 out of 10 times because I’m satisfied with 50 quid before the race starts, I know folk who always underlay. SMASH AND GRAB before your road ends. Good luck and don’t steal tonight’s liquidity off me please.

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unowhatimeanharry
Blocked

3

May 26, 2017 at 1:09 pm

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mbbinkman 12 May 28, 2017 at 9:12 am

did early prices go back up at pp? i called it a night at 01:40ish

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nate88 1 May 28, 2017 at 9:33 am

I got in at 3am from the beer, had to have a look (or try too!!) it was SP only on all races:

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rcw86 0 May 28, 2017 at 10:08 am

Between 23:00 and 01:00 Penn National and Evangeline Downs were offering odds. On PP there will be a P next to the meeting to show you there are prices available saves clicking them all. I did about 6-8 races hit 3 winners after underlaying them all and ended up about £60. Biggest stake I did was £20

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mbbinkman 12 May 28, 2017 at 10:32 am

i noticed though the earlier races at evangeline the prices on pp were posted a good 20-30 mins before the off – however from just after midnight they were just showing as sp until within a couple of minutes before the off, was my first crack at this last night so not sure if that is normal or whether pp had more people getting on early and took action? also i seemed to make an extra £100ish to what i was expecting and i think it was something to do with ‘reduced factor (RF)’ showing on my betfair history but I can’t get my head around how that happened?

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unowhatimeanharry
Blocked
3 May 28, 2017 at 1:02 pm

FOG Sky are horrible compared to PP, try them for 3-4 days and you’ll see. By the way I’d never ever touch a 3/2.88 absolutely no value and one step closer to the restriction

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jimmyjames 2 May 28, 2017 at 6:10 pm

May be something or nothing, but right now there are no board prices on Paddy for any of the US meetings they have on their site. Every single race is SP.

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Bazza74 12 May 28, 2017 at 8:29 pm

Aren’t PP and Betfair the same company. Surely this is a quick way to get gubbed.

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nate88 1 May 28, 2017 at 8:41 pm

Bazza74 you would be silly if you are using PP and Betfair accounts in same name?

This is for multi accounters that have the luxury of burning up 5-6 accounts ?

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FoG_BLoG 61 May 30, 2017 at 12:10 am

Anyone notice how so much money trades on the non runners if betfair haven’t taken the horse off the market. I saw ppl backing and laying thousands at short price on a non runner tonight.

Looks like someone trying to influence the reduction factor.

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matchedem
Blocked
10 May 30, 2017 at 7:08 am

Same happens on the UK races fog…soon as a non runner announced u first see the price reduce on smarkets

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Dave_Jones 12 May 30, 2017 at 7:53 am

matchedem is right, I think this happens quite a lot on the UK races. I’ve wondered if there was a way of profiting from this in the past but I’m not smart enough to work out how.

I used to think it was dumb people trading on BF not realising the horse was withdrawn. I now think I was the dumb one for not being able to work out just what exactly they are up to.

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unowhatimeanharry
Blocked
3 May 30, 2017 at 7:56 am

£100k+ came for a non runner the other day his lay was 1.15 and I put a £100 to see what happens, he can’t lose if he doesn’t race can he lol

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Marv 2 May 30, 2017 at 11:54 am

saturday night i definitely saw a non runner that was slow to update on betfair and it was backed all the way down to 1.01

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FoG_BLoG 61 May 30, 2017 at 4:52 pm

Do you know if you back at 3.0 and lay at 2.0 and the lay keeps falling to 1.8 say, you are leaving all that value behind between 2.0 and 1.8. Sure if the lay goes back up after you lay then you’ve made a bit of extra value. But I see mostly they continue to drop. Even if the lay sticks at 1.8 in reality the true odds are probably a lot shorter as everyone laying off the big bookie price will inflate the exchange odds.

Anyway. I’ve had a couple of nights at this on a restricted account just to play around. I’m restricted so say only £5 stakes and totally unlayed. About 10 horses per night, yes they are easy to find. Total investment is therefore £100 and my return was £200. That’s like 100% Roi. I have a feeling that no laying has helped making such a big return, probably a little luck as well.

I don’t know if they will ever restrict me further or if I’m at max restrictions possible. But I’m just trying to say that even on small stakes the value of a 3.0/2.0 arb beats the value on a lot of those offers that used to keep us busy like money back 2nd etc.

I’m not saying I’m going to stay up till 3am each morning to scratch out £50 for the night. But one could and easily make £1500 per month even heavily restricted.

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bobster 3 May 30, 2017 at 5:09 pm

I had a quick look the other night, and there are so many meetings in the US – are there any particular ones you look at? Seems like could take a while trawling through every single one looking for the arbs?

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