My first ACCA…
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Thought I’d put this on in case anyone wanted to try it as well , or not if it looks dodgy…
5 legs just gonna under lay it as it goes and hope for free bet scenario at the last leg. Done this with Betway £25.
11 April – Roma 1.3/1.34
12 April – Real Madrid 1.18/1.21
16 April – Bayern 1.18/1.21
17 April – Juventus 1.15/1.1919 April – Newcastle United vs Manchester City @ 6
See what you think guys…
+0April 11, 2016 at 12:26 pm
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What’s the lay odds of the last leg?
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Newcastle 5.75/6.6 on betfair.
It was Newcastle 6.0 when I put it on. Just chose this match as it was roughly as high odds as a lot of the examples on the ACCA threads for the final leg, plus I’m from the north east.
+0I think you have around 42.5% probability of a free bet, 6.5% probability of all five legs winning and 51% probability of two or more legs loosing.
Are you intending on laying each leg using the SS that guarantees a profit no matter the outcome?
+0If laying each leg might be difficult for whatever reason then another option would be to not lay at all but to go for much shorter odds for the last leg. Say something like 1.2/1.22.
If you then plug the numbers into a SS we get something like:-
The acca will win or you will get a FB 76% of the time and you will loose your money 24% of the time.
As Mark has said many times there are lots of different ways of doing these offers.
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Thank you for your post Dave. I’ve had a look at the spreadsheets on the Acca thread but was still not totally confident I knew how to use them and there was a lot so wasn’t sure which one to use. There did not seem to be a ‘definitive’ spreadsheet, if there is such a thing especially for a 5 leg ACCA.
I was going to lay as it progressed in the hope I was playing a ‘winning’ game so to speak…
If you have a spreadsheet I that’s easy to use it would be great if you could post it on here.
+0@ The Minister I have downloaded several of the SS that have been posted here over the last few months. Although I have used SS for a long time, I don’t know much about putting one together. The one I used to produce the figures shown above I just adapted from one someone else has posted, and it is such a mess since I have altered it, it would take me an age to try and explain what is going on with it.
You would be far better off downloading some of the other SS that have been posted take a look at the formulas to see what is going on and then adapt one yourself for what you want it for.
MarkCorrigan posted an excellent SS not that long ago, which showed how to lay off each leg with guaranteed profit, however it is not possibly for me to always be able to lay off each leg when required so I didn’t down load it, but I think its still available for download.
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I’m gonna download them again and have a look at them more in depth, I was frightened by the lookup tables!
There’s another one I’m gonna try as Roma lost last night.
12 April – Real – 1.18/1.22
17 April – Juventus – 1.15/1.17 (14:00)
17 April – Athletic Madrid – 1.25/1.28 (17:15)
17 April – Barcelona – 1.12/1.15 (19:30)
18 April – Stoke City – 4.6/4.8
See if you fancy a bet on these Dave.
+0@The Minister
read the first couple of pages in this thread which explain the maths behind calculating the probabilities.https://matchedbettingblog.com/topic/wh-acca-insurance-example/#.VwzsBKT2bIU
Then down load one or two of the simpler SS to see how the the SS creators have worked out the formulae to calculate the probabilities. Once you have got your head around this then its not too difficult to adapt the SS to work out the probabilities on any number of legs of an Acca you wish.
As I explained earlier I am not able to always lay off each leg and so only had a quick glance at MarkCorrigans SS, but did not put any time into understanding how he has used look up tables etc to work out the lay off values.
Something to consider though is if doing Accas may lead to gubbings. Some posters say you are less likely to be gubbed if you do Accas other posters have said they were gubbed immediately once they started doing Accas.
My thinking on this is (this is total guess work I have no facts to back this up), is that you are less likely to be gubbed doing an Acca with the odds you produced in your first post in this thread, and you are far more likely to be gubbed doing one with the odds I suggested.
If you are taking money only around half the time from the bookie (using your odds) rather than nearly 80% using my odds then your account is likely to last much longer.
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Perceived longevity of an account is important for sure , guess I’ll just have to wait to see how it progresses. I think you’ll be OK with those odds if they are on top teams but obviously I’m not certain.
My guess is that accounts are not manually looked at by anyone and they just trigger a gubbing if your account has not lost enough money on slot games etc , like the fog pointed out a while back I think and it is doing the bonuses.
I don’t think one single free bet is for an average guy putting a bet on , I think it’s part of a nasty game they have to play with the mind of a poor gambler!!
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