Royal Ascot 2020 (Day 3)
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Looks like 4 duds followed by 3 profitable races tomorrow. Hope the 15:35 stays 8 runners, GL betting
+0June 17, 2020 at 7:16 pm
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Field size also another factor- the closer it gets to minimum runners (16) the better the more places becomes- many variables- no set rules IMO
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Fair play MRM taking Techician at 6s in the 335. Been a bit resitant to going in much tonight on that race due to being on the 8r. On the pluses sides- pretty rare a horse will pull out of a race like that-with such a good chance of earning good win/place prize money- also experienced horses unlikely to have stalls trouble- so slim chance I think of an issue- prob need to be getting razor tight win/arb prices early doors. Decided I couldnt resist some on Cross Counter 14-1- worse come to worse if there is 1-3 nrs- if the win price hasnt drifted (in those 2 top value prices) then the 2TP lay should be small arb/minimal loss.
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Think the technician 6 at b365 was for the itv 4/1 offer
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I think the fav Stratirvarious has drifted a bit- Its become more of a risky move now- Not a big enough place arb on outsiders now to justify taking the early punts IMO (unless nice win arb!) the 2tp will prob be a small loss on most atm should a NR crop up- will leave that till afternoon- unless some changes in the fav price etc
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And finally on the EPR 1/5 v 1/4 debate. No one needs to know what is better-if you see a price that is an overall each way arb on the markets- you simply bash on as much as you can with that firms price and whatever terms they are offering- so long as its an eway arb price based on those terms. No need to be too scientfic- spot an arb/bosh as much on as poss/lay as and when u see fit…simples
+0I’ve taken Technician each way as I saw Stradivarius start to drift a bit and wanted to be in a good position on Tecnician in case Stradivarius turns out to be another Japan – not well backed and slowly drifted for most of the day, with Technician hopefully coming in.
Bit of a gamble I know, but if it does drift, I can always lay at the BOG win price and if it goes on to win, I land a £50 risk free bet.
I’m also gambling on there being no NR because of the class of race – For someone who doesn’t like risk and likes to lock in profit , I’m playing this one a bit risky haha.
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Example in coming….Tip 440 WAILYAK 10-1 BET365=1/4 4places= its the price/its an eway arb/there the terms from bet365…max stakes…move on to the next arb
It might not be an arb with 3 nrs!!
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I’ve also just taken Waliyak at 11/11 (12 boosted) with Lads for the 16:40 EPR
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lovely added in bonus factors there MRM (bog/50risk free bonus)- I challenge anyone to go in lab and break down all the those vaiables…my feeling suggests top scalp with tasty fringe benefits!
The risk free factor is worth $8-9 alone on that!Just wanna get kip out of the way and go again…Misses will be back in a couple of weeks and sharbing days will return again soon- so making the most of the online/horsey arbs world for the minute…It will all be outdoor grafting/bit of online checking/napping and ‘normalish’ evenings soon…
+0Good analysis Scab. Sometimes no need to be too scientific. I wonder how much extra value a good management consultant could bring if they were given all of our EW spreadsheets over the years
Mr M dont think of the 15:35 as taking a ‘risk’. Its a rational strategy to bet on it, even if it might not pay off tomorrow (due to potential NR)
Surprised Stradivarius has such low odds anyway! didnt fare well in his last 2 races
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Cheers Enigma- wasnt having a pop at scientific betting= more remembering the times when I was quite new on here and quite a few scoffed at my notions that 1/5 5TPs were some times very worthy and that EPRs 12+ were always worth investigation. As it goes I do love a bit of scentific value breakdowns- but I dont think that debate is worth the time- as nearly always your bet is based on the best price/s you can get- if its an arb, and also limited on how much you can get on. So IMO one should be spreading around max stakes on any arb that apprears. If one was limited to say a single $100 each way bet, and the same price appeared in more than 1 bookie with differing place terms- then for sure it would be good to calculate/know which was the better option.
Perhaps if your exchange balance was running low and you could only afford to cover a certain amount of stakes-In that instance knowing which option= should the same price appear in with different firms/terms- would be useful= If its near race time, a look at the 4 an 5 place markets should be able to help you calculate.
+0Cheers Enigma. I do still sometime sit on the fence for too long when thinking about taking a price (and more often than not regret it when I don’t!).
Interesting points about the 1/4 vs 1/5. I guess timing can be an issue too. Take Waliyak. You can see if it has value on the normal 4 places at this current time but not the 5 places market. I took lads and 5 places because of the boost and I’ve already got a bet365 horse in the same race.
+0That’s it for me tonight. I’ll catch you all tomorrow. Be up early again tomorrow. Probably have a quick look between 6.30 & 7 otherwise normal 9 ish for me
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Very small place arbs in that 335- should improve tomorrow. I think MRM caught the best shot- and anyone with Bet365 shoud prob take the shot with Technician at the now cut 5s. Other than that no great gains/for potential pains elsewhere in that one atm…
Sorry guys Ive gone into high ramble mode (even by standards) Call it in there, Might need a new thread by tomorrow! This one more a ‘review of day 3 episode’ etc etc.
Good fishing..see u’s in the morning..cheers+0
Nice one MRM take the price/terms that suits…if you could have grabbed both firms on Walliyak great..but factoring another uncalculatable variable! like over betting with same firm/extra horses..boosts (this might never end!) is another shrewd move..Good night all
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