Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
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Posting here, daily whenever possible, naps I spot when they are each way arbing throughout the day. With ranking system from 1-5 stars.
Feel free to post anything on this thread regarding them/queries👍+3October 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm
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Scabba send me details via email please fella. Just enquiring at the moment, dont want you getting your hands smacked again on this forum. The forum is very good by the way. Cheers Frank
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No worries Frank- will do in due course…stay tuned etc
And yes top forum/website so must abide by the old rules- which i wasnt aware off till now…but it makes sense+1
With the US PGA Golf about to kick off in 2 hours or so… A chance to see what shape my 6 each way golf naps are in and options for laying off..using the regular average breakdown £25 each way stakes for examples…betfair exchange current prices used
(1) Tommy Fleetwood 50-1 (9 places)
Win lay £23.15 at 55.0
8 places lay £26.85 at 8.01st- 8th- profit + £62 (approx)
9th place- profit + £275
10th or worse- -£1 in commisions(2) Harris English 100-1 (11 places)
Win lay- £16.78 at 150.0
10 places lay- £33.22 at 11.01st-10th- Profit + £167.80
11th- profit +£525
12th or worse. -£1 in commisions(3) Jason Day 45/1 (9 places)
Win Lay £25 at 42.0
8 places lay- £25 at 6.61st place- Profit + £185
2nd-8th- Profit +£85
9th place- Profit +£250
10th or worse- -£1 in commisions(4) Gary Woodland 50/1 (9 places)
Win Lay £16.90 at 75.0
8 place lay- £33.10 at 8.01st-8th- Profit + £18.30
9th place- Profit +£275
10th or worse- -£1 on comms(5) Loius Osthausen 100-1 (7 places)
Win Lay- £22.93 at 110.0
5 place lay- £27.07 at 19.01st-5th- Profit +£12.75
6th or 7th- profit + £525
8th or worse- -£1 in comms(6) Colin Morikowa 28/1 (10 places)
Win lay- £21.20 at 34.0
10 place lay- £28.80 at 4.50
1st-10th- Profit +£15.60
11th or worse. -£1 in commsHave taken the high end of the lay markets (a few may nudge in a bit closer to back part of the place lays) May be be a few pennies out here n there and not factoring in the odd 50p in comms that might be incurred.
All in All cracking- whole lot of cracking!…And no real reason why the stakes couldnt have been a lot higher than just £25 each way on a big major golf tournament for this breakdown…which I have done myself with minimum £50 each way on all of these 6…Next big golf major that comes along im gonna make sure exchange account is well into 5 figures and really go big!
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August naps cont…
06/08
(19) 415 Stratford- No Thanks 40-1 (888/unibet) 1/5 odds 3 places 13 r
Race improving in each way value as fav shortens in- now around 1.82- Pure speculation nap as the markets are thin and what is there on the nap is not yet a value eway arb. In this pretty poor quality race I quite like the decent flat form of this horse at such a high price-would have this at around 20/1 myself- Has had just one try at the hurdles which was a struggling 7th/12. But trainer Olly Murpthy has a tremendous strike rate at winning/placing over hurdles and subsequently rarel;y do his horses go off at such big prices..So am speculating that this horse is better than the 40/1 price and there will be market support for trainer Olly Murphy. 3/5*
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August naps cont…
06/08(20) 400 Leopordstown- Cardona 25/1 *** (betfred/unibet) 1/5 odds 5 places 17r
Good value hcap/extra place race this one. But like the 415 at stratford difficult to scalp an early value arb with such low liquid in the markets. So speculate nap again at the 25/1- The Dapper Napper fancys this one also to go off shorter (not an inside whisper etc) So having looked at its steady plodding form- good for snatching the extra place spot- and the fact that I think the extra 1/2 furlongs of todays 1m 5 trip will suit him (normally runs between 1m2-1m4) and adding TDNs input into the mix- Ill go with this one as potential solid arb value at 25-1- Also 25-1 with 365/victor but thats 1/4 odds 4 places and with 17r atm I would always opt with 1/5 5 places. 3/5
+0Good shout on No thanks in the 4.15 Scabba. For anyone who can’t use 888/Unibet. 34 is still available with 365. Win lay down to 29/30 on the exchange
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August naps cont…
07/08
(21) 1235 Sandown- Dark Illousion 15/2 (victor) 1/5 odds 3 places 8R
Value each way race but currently at 8 R so just 1 NR/non starter will bring it down to 1/4 odds 2 places. Worth the risk in my book- Can lay the win off for more or less levels- and then lay the 2 place markets off near time for small loss (at current prices) Leaving a valuable crack at big pay off if he can scalp the 3rd place finish. Looked to have some promise based on his one run 7th/12. 2/5
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I believe that as I got that post in on Dark Illousion that the 15/2 with Victor had just been cut- So will have to go with the nap now at reduced 7/1 with Fred/Hills/365…Brining the value down to 1/5*
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August naps cont..
07/08
(22) 1250 Cartmel- Blueskyandsunshine 9-1 (365) 1/5 odds 3 places 11R
Good value each way race. Tip has resonable form- But dont expect it to come in much more- So take the early win lay- Leaving nice place arb come nearer the off if theres no significent drift. 3/5*
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August naps cont…
07/08
(23) 1250 Cartmel- Geography Teacher 66-1 (365) 1/5 odds 3 places 11 r
Been wanting to get in on this value horse in this race and now 66-1 is 5/5 value- Has a chance of being in the places mix based on best flat form- Hopefully now after 1/2 hurdles runs is getting used to this discipline. Lay late- 5/5
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If you cant get on with 365’s 66-1- Then take the 50-1 at 888/unibet/10 bet for 3/5* value
Also 66-1 still with Sporting bet. 5/5
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Hard to believe that that Kiffinan Bay is still qouted at 66s in a couple of places- But dont fancy it myself/and think it will prob drift..so didnt nap it
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August naps cont….
07/08
(24) USA Pga Golf- Justin Rose 11/2 Top 5 finish (888/unibet)
Small value arb- another golf one! And this a rare non beach way bet- just straight win €50 stakes (more if ucan get on) with the play around 6 0/6.2- a small arb and I happen to think Rose is going to grind his way in and around the top 5 and may advise waiting till end of round 2 for play at hopefully shorter price- it’s an arb which ever says one lays/punts it and I think its overpriced on the markets also.3/5
+0Scabba that was a cracking nap. Had to sneak that one on at work, appreciate that one . Got a bit on it …
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Good to hear Frank..
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