Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
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Posting here, daily whenever possible, naps I spot when they are each way arbing throughout the day. With ranking system from 1-5 stars.
Feel free to post anything on this thread regarding them/queries👍+3October 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm
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B Horshel- 1st of Tonys 11th man hopes into the clubhouse….Grafts his way into days 3/4 with a grinding evens after 2 rounds
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The Day really turns up a notch now as most of the 1st round contenders/our shouts begin…J Day tees off for round 2
Fleerwood fires his way into serious contention and the clubhouse at -6 (lowest round of the tourney)
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Those last two posts were meant for the Golf/11th thread…had a few beers/getting exited about my naps/value punts in the golf being in such tip top shape…..
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Golf naps Update
For anyone who got on my straight ‘win’ nap yesterday with the advised wait till end of round 2 lay option- Justin Rose 6.50 top 5 finish with 888- Can now lay out for big lock in profit if wishing to with the lay somewhere between 3.3 and 4.3…Very nice
Overall in tremendous shape on my six each way Outright naps
Fleetwood 51.0 eway top 9. -6 (2nd)
Day 46.0 eway top 9. -6 (2nd)Both in massive arb value/going for the win posistions now
Moikowa 29.0 eway top 10. -2
Woodland 51.0 eway top 10. -1
English 101.0 eway top 10. Evens
Osthausen 101.0 eway top 7. +1All still in with each way shouts
All six made the cut- With combined -14 at an average score around -2.4
Been enjoying the reduced focus on the horses.. and using my arb/knowledge skills on something different…so far so good..early days though..although lay out posistions on the naps now would yield top notch profits overall…..Punting for value myself…If just Fleetwood and Day can at least hold top 9 posistions…And Rose make top 5…Then a superb profit is in the pipes..
Still keeping an eye or two on the horses though…Just not been many big value races yesterday/today…should have a few horse naps in today at some points..The Dapper Napper has been a bit quite with the low quality Irish stuff thats been on the cards
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August naps cont…
08/08
(25) USA PGA GOLF- RORY MCILROY 55.0 Outright (BETFAIR EXCHANGE)
Another golf bet- and a specualtion value bet. With Rory currently -1 (7 shots of the lead) Getting out pretty early today- when conditions have proved to be much more favourable than later in the day- Rory has a great chance to play in pretty much the best conditions- wind etc wise- and post a solid -2 or 3 or even better and put himself much more up the betting come day 4- with all the leaders coming out towards the end in the worst conditions- perhaps bringing the gap to the midfield players closer. The view is that if Rory does post a useful round (he has looked on the verge of a Rory surge the 1st couple of days without fully firing yet) and the leaders do stagnate/slip up a bit later on- that the 55.0 on Rory will drop a lot come day 4- leaving a nice lay posistion/value shot. 3/5
Simple advised stakes for breakdowns- Back $50 at 55.0 on exchange…Lay tomorrow+1
Augest Naps cont…
08/08
(26) USA PGA GOLF- Haoltong Li 1.77-1.79 Top 20 Finish (Betfair Exchange)
Golf again! Maybe getting carried away with so many Golf naps/tips- but they are going so well atm that Im continuing to value hunt in this PGA Major. This tip a straight out attempt of betting for percieved value at the exchange price of around 1.77- 1.80- that Li can at least hold on enough for a top 20 finish (currently at -8 Leading two shots clear of the pack) Questions marks about how he will handle the pressure of being in such a strong posistion in a major for the 1st time and also having to deal with the worst of the conditions going out last later today. But with the bookies pricing him between as low as 1.28 and 1.44- I feel this is certainly an overpriced value punt (advised stakes for breakdown $50 win with no lay options- perhaps tomorrow if it has shortened considerably) I forecast a top 20 spot at the end will be no higher than -5 (maybe less) So +3 for two rounds would/should get the bet paid. 4/5*
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Aug naps
08/08
(27) 430 Utoxeyter- leeswood lily 33/1 (365) 1/5 3to 9r
Fast one 5 mins before show price- has a chance solid value.3/5
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August naps cont…
09/08
(27) Salisbury 1250- Tamaska 8-1 (unibet) 1/5 odds 3 places 10 r
Small value each way race. 8/1 GOOD ON THE EXCHANGES NOW ON THIS NEWCOMER HORSE. 3/5
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August naps cont…
09/08
(28) 1240 Salisbury- Marlay Park 33-1 (PP/BFAIR SPORTS) 1/5 ODDS 3 PLACES 10R
Value each way race with very short fav around 1.5. The rest of the field mostly newcomers including this nap- so its difficult to gauge any form for potential market moves. Money has been steadilly trickling in for the nap- and has entered value range now. Prob best to lay the win as tight/early as poss and if theres no big drift will have a good place/overall arb nearer the off. 2/5
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28-1 Nap Collin Morrikowa -13 wins the US PGA
naps at usual breakdown purposes £25 each way or £50 win
(1) Colin Morriwowa 28/1 -13 (1st) +£840
(2) Jason Day 45-1 -10 (3rd) +£200Harris English 100/1 -5 (19th) -£50
Tommy Fleetwood 50/1 -3 (T29th) -£50
Louis Ostheizen 100/1 -2 (T33rd) -£50
Gary Woodland 50/1 +2 (55th) -£50Other Naps during the tourney
Justin Rose 11/2 Top 5 Finish- -9 (9Th) -£50
Rory Mcilroy 55.0 Win- Lost- -£50
HT Li 1.80 Top 20 Finish (T17th) +£40Total lay out at regular stakes..
£450
Returns…
£1330
Profit….
+£780Magic!
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August naps cont….
10/08
(30) Rachel Ball vs Shannon Courtney- 14/08 Sky Sports Boxing- Rachel Ball to win 21/10 (pp/bfair sports)
This nap coming in for the upcoming Womens Boxing! on Friday. Started to unleash the full array on Scabbas naps service with the recent Golf naps and a few other things. Value each way Horse napping is the baulk of my naps. but picking off each way value in other sports like the golf and sometimes out n out tipping when I think something is overpriced/arbing in any match up is all part of the armoury and included with all my/The Dapper nappers horse scalps. As there is no lay options advised on these (sometimes an inplay lock in possibilty will be be advised) then of course its entirely up to the follower to decide if its for them- but I will include all bets advised along with all of the horse value naps in any breakdowns of performance profits…For breakdown purposes a basic straight £50 win as opposed to the usual £25 each way will be used for recording performances.
On to the tip…Boxing a specialist sport for me- The sport Ive followed/still follow more than any other. Always been in the genes as family were involved in the game either as boxers or in training -And ive scalped good profits in this sphere over the years as a result of being a knowledgeable keen observer/follower of the noble art..studying fighters/styles and backing when I think a fighter is over priced- sometimes doing crafty inplay lay offs when my pick gets off to the good start im expecting. Women’s Boxing is still a wee bit new to me! but have had some steady recent scalps and boxing is boxing! and womens boxing can certainly be of good quality and is on the up…..
In this fight the highly Matchroom tauted Courtney is best priced 1/2 fav- as short as 1/3 in places..with the ‘away’ fighter Ball at 21/10 best price. Courtney (5 Wins 0 Losses)talks a good game and is more known because of ametuer career with GB team and putting herself about a bit on social media- But her actual 5 winning performances against ‘Journeywomen’ (new term!) have been pretty primitive/lackluster..and while she does have a bit of power- her boxing skills are very limited- Getting hit very easily by no hopers. On the other hand Ball- who lacks any decent power- does have good boxing skills/movement. Her record is 5w 1 loss- But while the wins also came against ‘Journey women’ her 1 defeat was against highly touted 11 and 0 K Thanderez (who claimed an interim WBC belt in her following fight) where she went away from home to Norway and lost a close split descion- I think she deserved a draw and may well have got the nod on home turf. So this form is way better than any of the lack lustre wins against no hopers from Courtney..Also Ball showed her ability to box and move/point score in that match up and also took some solid shots very well,,,I believe she should be favourite for this match not 21/10 outsider and can box/move take the odd decent shot and frustrate the limited Courtney and rack up a pts decision- Hopefully dosnt get robbed by the judges…which of course is always a risk as the ‘away’ fighter in Boxing…Value for me 4/5
Perhaps better for any followers to stick to following the horse scalps for now and see how the sports tips fare for a bit…Before deciding if they represent long term value etc
+0Got on the two winners Colin M and Jason D and to be fair Fleetwood was right in the mix so was still a good shout. He just didn’t have the minerals….. wish I’d left a bit more in the win on Colin C but Jason Day was a great place ! Was preying on jackpot place ( getting lay place back and winning place with bookies ) … some you win , some you lose. Made the event more entertaining. Cheers chaps
+0I’ve never done the boxing so let’s say I could put £30 on the win for Ball. See how she’s competing during in the fight , hopefully cruising … then look to lay the win ( in play ) at a lower option ? Hope she wins ? Is that are you are playing it Scabba ? Ta
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Nice one Frank..The golf naps made that an interesting 4 days to say the least…and profitable…My biggest unlid value punt myself was on J Day…So was very interesting last 9 holes…He went 4.8 to win in play with 6/7 holes to go..
With the Boxing and other sports bets Frank..most times I just punt for value (with Boxing for e.g I know im in good profit from betting on it from past bets so just think of the money as chips ive already won and putting some more on the next hand) Although on outsiders with high volume markets in Boxing who I believe will get good starts/1st few rounds…The lock inplay lay after 2/3 rounds can often be a nice safe play…Possibly markets on womens Boxing wont have good/tight in play markets…so that maybe one I just let ride…I Like backing on the old ‘styles makes fights/profits’ theroy…Ball better boxer who can last the distance/take a dig Vs inferior Boxer Courtney who relys on steady power…No guarntees! but would make Ball an even money shot with a fair shake…And believe Courtney is over hyped/Ball under looked…
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August naps cont…
10/08
(31) 430 Leicester- First Charge 22-1 (365/Victor) 1/5 odds 3 places 11r
Very good value each way race- prob only really good opp today to scalp a good each way value arb. Not much in the markets atm and 22/1 is just about the eway lay place- or be it with pennies in the lays. Very short proven fav at around 1.22 with a lot of debutants/horses with bad form in the rest of the runners. The tip ios one of those newcomers..Expensive horse from in form Ed Walker stable..4 wins from 18 runs in August and a lot of solid places/runs from the other 14 runs..Also Walkers horse’s rarely go off in double figure odds and normally attract support.. So Im speculating that it will go off shorter based on these facts.. 3/5
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