Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
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Posting here, daily whenever possible, naps I spot when they are each way arbing throughout the day. With ranking system from 1-5 stars.
Feel free to post anything on this thread regarding them/queries👍+3October 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm
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August naps cont…
(36) 130 Gorwan Park- Iffey River 8-1 (365/sbet) 1/5 odds 3 places 9r
Newcomer- support has been trickling in for this horse and it is now a solid value eway arb.
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Horses name is Liffey River not Iffey river- Hopefully it dosnt run an iffey race! solid value whatever he does at 8-1
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August napscont…
12/08
(37) spirit dancer 7/1 710 wolverhampton (betway/hills/fred/365) 1/5 odds 3to 10r
Solid value race. Money coming in for this one. De ent value atm and ok form.3/5
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Also available at 7/1 with Boyles whereadecent chance of koppong up to £20 mb if 2and to the short price fav. With boyles 5/5
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Will attempt to record BFSPs on the win/places of all naps from now..as realised now how easy it is to check at the end of the day
2 naps today 2 arb 2nds. Using €25 each way as usual for all tips and laying as much of full stakes of as possible on both the win and place12/08
(1) 130 Gowran park – Liffey Dancer 8/1 (2nd) placed
Bfsp win 7.03 lay €25- Win £24.50
Bfplace 1.8 lay €25- lost £20
+4.50 on bfairBet €25 8/1 returns €65
+£15 with Bookie£50 stake +£19.50
(2) 710 Wolves Spirit Dancer 7/1 (2nd) placed
Bfsp win 9.4 lay €20.50- Win £20.00
Bfsp place 1.61 lay £25- lost £15.25
Bfair +£4.75Bet €25 each way 7/1 returns €60
+£10 with Bookie£50 stake +£14.75
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Plus if managing to get on Spirit dancer 7/1 with Boyles as advised. With £25 away- this would kopped the €20 free bet also as it did indeed come in 2nd to the fav
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13/08
(38) 240 Hamilton- Grigora 25/1 (bet365) 1/5 odds 3 places 11 run.
Solid e/way value atm at 33s. Has advantage of a run behind him- with a lot of debut horses in race. Lay win early- should have decent place arb near race time if no big drift. 2/5**Already tipped this up earlier somewhere else at 33/1 price has come in well and 25s is still an ok value shot. Every chance of a big price place arb or even win in this race with the fav a bit to short in my book at around 2.1
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Naps cont…
13/08
(39) 450 Hamilton- Convival 11-`1 (Boyles) 1/5 odds 3 places 11 run
Small each way value race/price. Horse suited by soft going trip and course. So could well get backed in a little more and be in and around the frame. 2/5* value as it stands.
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Naps cont..
13/08
(40) Touch Of Gold 20/1 (betfred) 1/5 odds 4 places 12 run
Extra place race with Bfred paying the 4 places if 12r. Willing to take that chance of no nrs as its a hurdle race. Price/form solid on this atm. Has chances of market move/hitting frame. 4/5*
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nap 40 is 615 at Tramore!
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Anyone who got on board with my slightly obscure womens Boxing tip- Rachel Ball 21/10- Price proved to misjudged by the bookies as Ball is now best priced 5/4! to win- Joint fav with most as short as 4/5 with Betway. An easy lay off for guarnteed profit now easy to lock in. Also the draw into 12/1 best price- again the bookies have misjudged the possibilty of a draw coming in in a shorter distance fight (8 rounds) than normal title fight distances 10/12 rounds- and also that the two closely matched fighters are both unlikely to KO the other one-thus a strong chance of going to the judges bringing the draw strongly into play.
More Boxing value tips in due course…very happy with the 1st one..whatever happens in the match…me personally Im going to lock in my stakes on best price lay offs on Ball and the draw just before start..and chase the big profits should Ball win or the draw come in…Stay tuned..may have 1/2 more for Skys friday night card..+1
August naps cont…
(41) Zelfa Barrett v Eric Donavan- 14/08 Sky Sport Boxing- Barrett to win by decision/technical decision 4/1 (365) 3/5*
Interesting match up with young up n comer Barrett vs the experienced/decorated amateur Donavan. Barrett- 23/0/1 14 ko’s- is a highly talented/touted youngster with the one blip on his record – a narrow pts loss to the durable Ronnie Clark- Im certain hes put that blip behind him and re focused with trainer Uncle Pat (former euro champion/world title contender) putting him firmly back on track. Think he will have way too much speed/skills for the unbeaten as a pro Donavan- 12/0/0- who fights more like amateur picking up points and moving around/in and out. Dont think Donavan will have the power to halt Barretts superior speed/workrate but also dont see Barrett as a big KO artist and see Donavan as savvy enough to stay out of big exchanges and will have a good chance of hearing the final bell- but very unlikely to win on pts or stoppage himself- And If is a close one..Home fighter Barrett should get the nod…See possibilty of late stoppage win for Barrett by sheer volume..and perhaps if Im right and Barrrett is on top after 5/6 without any knockdowns/big damage to Donavan..Then perhaps an Inplay lay off the bet should well have gone a lot shorter than the 4/1 price advised before start.
+1Scabba I’m all in the ball fight so all good with that one.
Betfair sports have Barret at 4.5 so would you say go with that for what amount , usual £50? Only 0.5 off the great 365.+0
Not sure about 4.5 Frank. Sadly (until I get a fresh account with 365) Im also pretty much out of the ‘Magic one’ Bet365s game atm. like yourself and most other regs (apart from MRM). Id seen that 4.5 on offer with Bookies last few days and wasnt that exited by it..then saw 4/1 today with the magic sign and decided it had entered good value calculations…I won’t advise going in on the 4.5 mate…I try and get somewhere around 10%+ edges on sports bets (much more for value eway horses) And that dip from 5.0 to 4.5 pretty much wipes out my average sports bet edge..
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In you/anyone is keen on a guarnteed nick on the boxing (or be it a very small nick) and can get on biggish stakes with PP/Bfair sports and Bet Victor…In the John Docherty V Anthony Fox match up tomorrow
Fight to go the distance- Yes- (PP/BFair) 8/11 £165- returns- £285
Fight to go the distance- No- (Victor) 6/4 £115- Returns-£287.50Guarnteed nick of £5- £7.50p
Used to spend all day looking for little arb lock ins like that before the old race stuff kicked in.
Used these numbers because it was easy to calculate the 8/11 returns!
Dont do calculators etc+0
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