Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
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Posting here, daily whenever possible, naps I spot when they are each way arbing throughout the day. With ranking system from 1-5 stars.
Feel free to post anything on this thread regarding them/queries👍+3October 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm
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JK mate- nice to hear from you. A brief breakdown of how I record the lay offs/profits is 1. I use £25 e/way on all e/way naps as a guide. 2. I lay off as best as possible (for the breakdowns) up to a maximum of £25 on the each the win and place at time of off on BFair (IE BFSPs) So if for example a 10-1 nap (11.0) is laying at the off at 12.3 for the win and 2.4 on the 3 places. I will lay as much as poss on the win (without going over my ‘bet’ with Bookie returns) So in this case- £25 e/way at 10-1 bet. Lays..Win £22.12 and full £25 at 2.4 on the 3 places arb. Leaving me at risk of losing about £3 (with comms if it misses the frame) In profit if it hits the top 3 of in this case about +£12. Easiest way to record performance (some times there is a big steam & sometimes some drift) Just lay off as much as poss of the £25 stakes at the final BF win/lay prices will allow. Also always lay the minimum amount of places in extra place races using same stake breakdowns. Dont say thats the way one should always apply his/her arb posistions- Its just the way I like to do it/and record for performance. Its all swings and roundabouts- lay off as and when one sees fit- as long as they are e/way arbing at time of ‘bets’ then you will profit in the long run nicely (certainly on my ones!) which ever way you play it.
This matched betting/e way arbing caper seems to attract a lot of the most tighest people around- who can not bear to risk losing a small % of their stakes on any ‘bet’ no matter how much they have profited beforehand. So they miss a ton of overall e/way value arbs waiting for the golden arb trains to roll in (where the win is laying bang on/arbing- leaving easy press a button place pickings) This way they prob average 1 or 2 (at best) value shots a day returning prob a similar ROI to me- around +25%- maybe they get higher returns say +30-40% ROI. But they only get on 1/2 a day whereas I will hit on average 6 naps a day (going by last 2 months on Twitter) Thus im returning a hell of lot more profit come the tally ups at end of month. Golden rule for me in this game is be prepared to lose a few ‘chips’ sometimes!
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Another example is on a win drifter today Mini Crest 80-1(average nap price with 4 different firms 61-1). By the time of off the win had drifted to 139.0! But was still, even with the big win drift, an eway arb- as the 3 place lay at off was 4.95 (It was at some points laying well under the 81,0 on the win mind) Come the off I just accepted the win lay loss of around £14 and layed £11 (+a few pennies) at 139.0. And layed £25 on the huge 3 places arb at 4.95. Now if one would have wished- could have overlayed the place arb compansating for the £14 lost on the win lay- thus laying the 3 places at £39 instead of £25. Leaving zero risk (apart from £1 commisions) and a shot at around +£150 should it place. Hence even with the win lay at 139.0 this 61-1 shot was still a very nice e/way arb- Many people would have overlaid the place arb even more than zero risk £39 to lock in a profit wherever it finished.
I think one day I will chop down a huge stack of my posts etc (get someone good with grammar and punctuation to edit it all together of course) And bosh together a book on the mystic arts of e/way arbing and bookie sharbing. Aside from all the 1000s of e/way naps/spots there is- littered in and amoungst a lot of rambles. bad grammar/spelling and commentaries- a bucket load of golden wisdom in many of my posts/insights on this noble ish art.
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Been a long day and I was prob a quid out here and a few pence out there with 1/2 of my breakdown examples- But hopefully you JK mate/anyone else catches my overall drift/take on the examples etc.
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October naps 09/10
Napping this early bird for tomorrow
(51) 235 York (Saturday) Crystal Pegasus 7-1 (PP/BFair) 1/5 odds 4 places 13r
Big fancy/chance this Sir M Stoute horse. Great value for me atm and with PP/BFair paying 4 places as long as 11+ go- every chance race will qualify for the extra place. 5/5*
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October naps
09/10
(52) 310 York (saturday)- Mr Lupton 11-1 (Hills) 1/5 Odds 7 places 22rWith Hills paying a whopping 7 places on this race- I feel the need to get an early 1 in with them- as the bet of the day 2morro is that Hills will be worst price on all Rs here. Box ticker for me. 4*
+0Cheers Scabba – thanks for taking time out to reply after your long, hectic, profitable day!
Plenty there for me to take on board and digest!
I do ok as a novice but would like to get to the next level of profiting ,and have learnt such a lot from you over the last couple of months (plus from the other Contributors)!
I also think a book or online tuition would be a great Money Spinner to add to your already substantial profits! Lol!
Have a few well earned beers after today, before what looks like another busy and hopefully ‘profitable’ day on the cards tomorrow!!
Cheers and keep up the good work/tips!+0
October naps 09/10
(54) 255 Newmarket (Saturday) Cadillac 17/2 (PP/BFair) 1/5 odds 4 places 14r
Happy to see this in with E/W value in the markets atm. Like this horses chances of winning and shortening (as does TDN) Only 11r req again and 1 or 2 NRs would juice up value even more. 4*/5
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October naps 09/10
(55) 450 Newmarket (Sat) 1/5 odds 4 places 13r
In great form- stepping up a level. Cant argue at all with the tasty win arb + the extra 4 places value atm should 12+ run. Even if less than 12 go will be solid with no drift. 5/5*
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October 09/10
(56) 335 York (Saturday) Not So Sleepy 9-1 (Bet365) 1/4 odds 6 places 34r
Huge field- 6 places 1/4 odds is good enough for me so gotta go with ‘the magic sign’ (Now that Ladbrokes seem to have more or less retired) again. Value as it stands on markets now. 4*
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Haha thank you JK- Not sure really about the ‘book’ idea. Got a bit carried away yesterday with napping + posting/rambling in excess! Got a bit of brain fatigue this morning. Will post a few more more naps in though before 10am.
Good luck to you also today mate.+0
October naps 09/10
(57) 310 York- Admirality 14-1 (Hills) 1/5 odds 7 places 21 r
A 2nd e/w nap in this race with Hills bonus 7 place offer. Win lay a bit off- but value atm IMO with 7tp. Consistent and coming off low 8-12 weight. May well be in the 5th-7th bonus place shake up 4*
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October naps 10/10
(58)
255 Newmarket- St Marks Basillica 22-1 (365) 1/5 odds 4 places 14rBig value atm with this price. A O Brien horse with Dettori on board- 2 of the best positives for attracting more support. Plus I think it has excellent top 4 claims on form book. 5/5*
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October naps `10/10
(59) 335 Newmarket- Jukebox Jive 20-1 (365) 1/4 odds 6 places 34r
Another in this bumper field hcap with 1/4 odds 6 places with 365. Napping purely on current market price value. 4*
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October naps 10/10
(59) 315 Fairyhouse- Small Bad Bob 14-1 (888/Victor/365) 1/5 odds 3 places 18r
Low markets atm- so mainly specualtion nap here. Prob has best form in race outside of the 1.35 fav. With so many rank outsiders here- should turn out to be a value e/w race. 3/5*
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October naps 10/10
(60) 335 Newmarket- Coltrane 8-1 (Sky) 1/5 odds 8 Places 34 r
Getting one in with Skys stand out 8 place offer in this bumper field. Cant see this one being far away from top spot. May go off fav IMO. 4.5/5*
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