Titan Bet- Place a £25 pre-tournament Outright Winner bet on US Open, and if the golfer you back finishes 2nd or 3rd, we’ll give you a £25 Free Bet.

Winner- Place a £25 pre-tournament Outright Winner bet on US Open, and if the golfer you back finishes 2nd or 3rd, we’ll give you a £25 Free Bet.

Don’t be afraid to look at To place top 8 for 8 places lay arbs. Example Matsuyama Coral @ 34, lay 38 and lay 5.6. The place 5 and 6 markets seem to be a lot higher ratio-wise so I’d take a £5 arb profit over a £5 quali loss for 7,8 extra place.

Yep, I think I’ve stumbled across the pot-luck goldmine now that there is liquidity, or maybe I’m taken it all. Oh well 😉

1. Find a relatively good match on bookies offering 8 places. Example Garcia Sky @ 26/30 with top 5 lay 6.8 (would normally be a £7 loss for 6,7,8 places @ £25ew)

2. Cross check using antodev calculator the top 6 and top 8 Betfair markets for good liquidity and check the arb of the top 8.
2a. Top 8 arb 26/30, 6/4.4 = £4.80 profit
2b. Top 6 is 26/30, 6/5.8 = £3.32 loss

3. So you are now getting a £1.48 profit + 7,8 places free shot at around £146. If you have the bank and liquidity is there this can be multiplied many times.

4. Note you need to double up the initial ew across either the same bookie (so would be £50ew) or across Sky and Paddy £25ew.. etc. and you need a big bank roll.

Bookies offering 8 are Sky, Paddy, Coral, 10bet and McClean. NOT Betfair as if you’re gubbed it’s only 5 places plus you’re laying on Betfair exchange.

I mean, you could just take the arb and be done with it also?

I’ve looked this morning and didn’t catch much value. I think the trick is to check often so you can get on movements in odds before all the bookies update.

I found Garcia, koepka, Fowler, Matsuyami value for some of the extra place offers on some of the bookies but barely any profit.

Unless on like betstars you are getting on their BOG offer I probably wouldn’t bother for the small arbs.

I suppose Garcia 26/30 for win and 6.0/4.5 to place 8 is decent but it was the only one that stood out.

I don’t think this tournament is going to be a gold mine.

I find it interesting though in play if one player takes a big lead it can sort of become a bad each way “race”. The bookies will slowly reduce their ew terms to 5 places or 4 places etc but if there is a market on betfair often can get good ew bets in play, particularly if the odds are in flux (someone’s just landed in the pond).

Have to say if you were going purely for e/w arbs, then there were plenty to come by. It’s kicked off now so extra place terms will disappear but yeah, for example the best I got was Casey was at Coral and McClean for 51/60 and laying 8 places at 6.6. That’s a 21% ROI. Ran out of bank roll for that though, didn’t fancy sticking my entire bank balance into Smarkets and Betfair.

When I looked at Casey his lay was up to 11. I didn’t spend time monitoring odds. Just checked what was available at one moment in time. Got a few but I remember other tournament getting arbs or value on offers on almost the entire top 10.

I haven’t had the same time to search this time round though.

Nah this was on the 8 places not 5. So no extra places but 21% arb which I think is fairly substantial. You could lay 6 places also but only a small arb and get the 7/8 places chance.

Have to say, now I’m excited for the next Major… and max out exchanges

Or you could take the 5 place lay and maximise value (in most cases) feltip?
I get what you are doing, and it’s a smart way to make it purely risk free – but (in most cases) you’d be sacrificing some expected long run profit for making it risk free.

There were a couple of gems just before the odd, zero ql’s at paddy against the 5 place market. However I got distracted at work and got 1 bet, and the win lay through my 2 bets/4 lays attempt! Luckily just paid the place parts for a small ql.

This did highlight value opportunities in the place market in the first hour. The existing market pretty much cleared as it went in play, and there were a lot of big gaps and clearly out of line odds. It’s a big risk taking value on a golf sized field in the first hour of a 4 round tournament… but compared to the hour before the first tee shot there was value there, and for golfers yet to start

if 21% ROI is available on plenty of golfers, then i dont see the point in trying to hit extra places

are you taking slight less profit in the long run? yes

should variance play out in the long run? yes

HOWEVER variance could be months and months and months, accounts dont always last long enough for variance to play out

never mind the fact that varying stake levels also complicates the variance further, especially if low stakes you do well on extra places but big stakes you hit naff all

Not sure where 21% comes from, that garcia arb is 0.6% in isolation and still under 10% even if you assume you have enough bets on to not need to use more exchange money.

Depends on preference and I’m not saying you have to do it, but trying to cover the options rather than the short guaranteed cash

That Casey example you’re probably not losing any value taking the arb.

51/60
11/6.6

£10 ew guarantees £4.28, assuming 2% comm on win and 5% on the 8 to place.

Alternatively..

51/60
11/10.5

Is around a £1.30 QL.

So thats about a £5.60 swing.
About 20/1 to hit 6th-8th doesn’t seem that great. Especially when ties could reduce it further.

Cheers Mb. Yeah the 21% comes from Bookie investment and doesn’t account for exchange requirements. Unsure whether accounting for that is needed, I know oddsmonkey doesn’t bother.

I dunno, maybe there is more value just laying 5 places but this is golf. You could be down £100 just to hit an extra place which is then split 6 ways for a tie. It’s weird saying this myself considering the Masters 6th place hit, but yeah as Mb recognises the value fluctuates on each place/player that has to be taken into account.

I suppose all I’m doing is taking an arb and reinvesting on a lower ql extra place market player. Ended up only £9 up but covered 13 players, possible best win 6/7/8 is 2.5k.

That’s why I added most cases, that Casey one highlights the value of comparing all markets- and I’d take the profit on 8places all day with those prices.
If you’re mixing approaches though on the same player that’s lowering value somewhere, great if the £9 came from Casey style scenarios to balance your figures but if it’s come from chopping that potential win from 5k to 2.5k then there’s probably other ways returning more for total capital

My betstars approach had gone wrong. Dustin drifted so much my bog is capped by their ‘£1k max benefit’ in t&c. So I’ve still got a chunk to lay and only on effective odds of 26-1…. Hopefully he has a very good day

With you betman. Took him with titanbet and held of laying. Didn’t realise the time and missed my opportunity before the drift. He needs double weetabix this morning!